← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Charlie Campbell vs Tom Nolan
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
63.5%
Model
40.6%
Market
2.37
Odds
+22.9
Edge (pp)
HIGH-PACE GRINDER · PRESSURE WRESTLER · DISTANCE KICKBOXER · PRECISION STRIKER · GRAPPLING CONTROLLER
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P94
Striking Initiative
P96
P75
Volume
P98
P90
Striking Efficiency
P70
P79
Range Sniper
P60
P88
Kickboxing
P80
P78
Clinch Striking
P71
P49
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P74
Wrestling
P18
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P34
P81
Top Control
P7
P3
Submission
P33
P69
Anti-Wrestling
P8
P32
Grappling Defense
P26
P77
Scrambler
P27
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P93
Power
P32
P45
Finisher
P32
P48
Damage Resistance
P23
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P81
Fast Starter
P18
P95
Pace
P65
P18
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P70
Versatility
P15
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CampbellNolan
5.21Landed / min5.68
3.27Absorbed / min4.99
56%Accuracy46%
55%Defense46%
0.81KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.86
Grappling / Wrestling
CampbellNolan
3.22TD / 150.43
8.05TD att / 153.44
40%TD accuracy13%
60%TD defense67%
4:36Control / 151:02
0.00Sub att / 151.72
Targets
CampbellNolan
Head48%|52%
Body29%|31%
Leg23%|18%
Position
CampbellNolan
Distance77%|81%
Clinch21%|16%
Ground2%|3%
Ranking evolution Campbell Nolan
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Charlie Campbell
Charlie Campbell brings the grappling in this pairing: strong takedown entries and control from top position once he lands them. His recent durability holds up well, and his distance work and stand-up defense grade slightly favorably. He rides a three-fight win streak, though against modest regional opposition.
Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan's cardio stands out, with a gas tank built to hold pace deep into the fight. His finishing has been ticking upward across recent outings. He's 3-1 in the UFC with three wins in his last four, and stands 8 cm taller as the southpaw in the matchup.
Matchup Read
Campbell's push to change levels and control from top meets Nolan's need to keep this vertical, where his height and southpaw angles matter most. If Campbell gets it down and rides top position, he neutralizes the length. If Nolan sprawls and keeps it standing, his conditioning grows in value the longer it runs, testing whether Campbell can sustain his grappling output over the distance.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Nolan can use his height and southpaw stance to keep Campbell at range and off his shots.
- Grappling: whether Campbell converts entries into sustained top control, or gets shrugged off in scrambles.
- Late rounds: whether Nolan's pace starts to tell if the fight stays standing and drawn out.
Key Uncertainty
Campbell has only two UFC fights on record and enters off a 17.7-month layoff, which leaves how his grappling holds up against this level of opposition harder to read.