← UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Alessandro Costa vs Matt Schnell
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06-06
65.9%
Model
85.1%
Market
1.13
Odds
-19.2
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P56
Striking Initiative
P60
P64
Volume
P81
P70
Striking Efficiency
P22
P88
Range Sniper
P41
P67
Kickboxing
P30
P48
Clinch Striking
P33
P44
Defensive Striking
P71
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P32
Wrestling
P30
P47
Pressure Wrestling
P21
P15
Top Control
P16
P55
Submission
P92
P5
Anti-Wrestling
P86
P50
Grappling Defense
P24
P24
Scrambler
P55
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P10
P73
Finisher
P43
P22
Damage Resistance
P3
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P38
P30
Pace
P32
P3
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P35
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CostaSchnell
3.91Landed / min4.03
3.83Absorbed / min4.02
48%Accuracy39%
53%Defense57%
0.74KD / 150.14
0.50KD abs / 150.82
Grappling / Wrestling
CostaSchnell
0.99TD / 150.69
3.71TD att / 151.51
27%TD accuracy45%
84%TD defense45%
1:21Control / 151:10
0.50Sub att / 151.37
Targets
CostaSchnell
Head59%|74%
Body19%|10%
Leg22%|16%
Position
CostaSchnell
Distance77%|82%
Clinch9%|8%
Ground14%|10%
Ranking evolution Costa Schnell
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Alessandro Costa
Costa keeps fights standing when he wants to, defending takedowns well and bringing real finishing power, with several of his recent wins coming inside the distance. He's 3-3 in the UFC and 15-5 overall, riding a one-fight win streak and a quick 2.1-month turnaround.
Matt Schnell
Schnell carries notable length over most flyweights, an eight-centimeter reach and ten-centimeter height advantage here. His gas tank and ability to hold pace deep into a fight stand out, and he's good at scrambling off his back to return to the feet. His defensive work has been trending upward lately.
Matchup Read
Costa's recent record and finishing power meet Schnell's edge in the technical wrinkles that matter in grappling. If Schnell looks to drag it down, Costa's takedown defense keeps it where his power lives, and his finishing threat is most acute early. The longer this goes, the more Schnell's cardio and pace over three rounds grow in value, along with his knack for getting back to his feet if he does end up underneath.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Costa closes the reach gap to land clean, or Schnell keeps him at the end of his length.
- Grappling: if it hits the mat, how fast Schnell works back to his feet versus Costa holding position.
- Late rounds: whether Costa's output holds or Schnell's pace takes over in the third.