← UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim vs Belal Muhammad
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06-06
58.9%
Model
44.0%
Market
2.19
Odds
+14.9
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P59
Striking Initiative
P81
P68
Volume
P75
P72
Striking Efficiency
P53
P63
Range Sniper
P23
P91
Kickboxing
P54
P53
Clinch Striking
P6
P86
Defensive Striking
P55
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P92
Wrestling
P74
P83
Pressure Wrestling
P87
P70
Top Control
P84
P98
Submission
P25
P38
Anti-Wrestling
P51
P78
Grappling Defense
P90
P24
Scrambler
P8
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P27
Power
P5
P94
Finisher
P2
P44
Damage Resistance
P72
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P94
Fast Starter
P21
P81
Pace
P91
P66
Late Fighter
P56
GLOBAL
P98
Versatility
P94
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BonfimMuhammad
4.50Landed / min4.48
3.61Absorbed / min3.83
47%Accuracy43%
62%Defense56%
0.26KD / 150.00
0.26KD abs / 150.28
Grappling / Wrestling
BonfimMuhammad
3.61TD / 152.17
6.70TD att / 155.96
54%TD accuracy37%
76%TD defense90%
3:08Control / 153:34
1.29Sub att / 150.14
Targets
BonfimMuhammad
Head54%|78%
Body17%|14%
Leg29%|8%
Position
BonfimMuhammad
Distance88%|87%
Clinch10%|5%
Ground2%|8%
Ranking evolution Bonfim Muhammad
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim arrives on a four-fight win streak and 19-1 overall, 6-1 in the UFC. His most dangerous tools cluster on the mat: real submission threat from top position and the ability to scramble up off his back when put there. His finishing rate stands out, and his ground control has been trending upward lately, as has his defensive sharpness. His cardio holds up well late.
Belal Muhammad
Belal Muhammad brings a deep résumé at 24-5 overall and 15-5 in the UFC, with his most recent win coming against the No. 1-ranked opponent and his last loss against the No. 8. Nine years older than Bonfim, he carries the more tested record against elite welterweight competition.
Matchup Read
Bonfim's submission threat and top finishing meet a far more experienced opponent who has shared the cage with the division's best. On the ground, the central danger is Bonfim's finishing ability, and even if he ends up on his back, his get-ups keep him from being controlled there. Over a five-round fight his pace holds up well late, which raises the value of pushing deep water. Muhammad's edge is the quality of competition he has already navigated.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Bonfim can turn ground exchanges into submission attempts rather than prolonged positional battles.
- Scrambles: if Muhammad puts Bonfim down, watch how quickly Bonfim works back to his feet.
- Championship rounds: whether Bonfim's pace holds its edge into rounds four and five of a five-round fight.