← UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Santiago Luna vs Bryce Mitchell
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06-06
51.9%
Model
43.7%
Market
2.20
Odds
+8.1
Edge (pp)
VOLUME PRESSURE STRIKER · DEFENSIVE STRIKER · POWER STRIKER · HIGH-PACE GRINDER · GRAPPLING CONTROLLER
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P20
P84
Volume
P3
P93
Striking Efficiency
P33
P86
Range Sniper
P9
P75
Kickboxing
P20
P83
Clinch Striking
P50
P88
Defensive Striking
P45
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P80
Wrestling
P87
P68
Pressure Wrestling
P96
P84
Top Control
P95
P57
Submission
P82
P39
Anti-Wrestling
P70
P36
Grappling Defense
P13
P33
Scrambler
P94
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P88
Power
P9
P74
Finisher
P35
P49
Damage Resistance
P20
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P36
Fast Starter
P96
P92
Pace
P75
P54
Late Fighter
P0
GLOBAL
P81
Versatility
P59
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LunaMitchell
8.20Landed / min2.27
3.82Absorbed / min1.60
55%Accuracy59%
72%Defense59%
1.69KD / 150.11
0.00KD abs / 150.43
Grappling / Wrestling
LunaMitchell
4.21TD / 153.24
5.06TD att / 158.96
83%TD accuracy36%
50%TD defense33%
3:31Control / 157:52
0.84Sub att / 151.19
Targets
LunaMitchell
Head75%|58%
Body21%|29%
Leg3%|13%
Position
LunaMitchell
Distance76%|56%
Clinch18%|8%
Ground5%|37%
Ranking evolution Luna Mitchell
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Santiago Luna
Santiago Luna comes in unbeaten at 8-0, riding an eight-fight win streak and 2-0 in the UFC. He pushes a high-volume, pressuring striking game, carries real finishing ability, and backs it with threatening takedowns. His gas tank holds up deep into fights, and the longer frame lets him work at range.
Bryce Mitchell
Bryce Mitchell brings the far deeper résumé at 18-5 overall and 9-3 in the UFC, with 3 of his last 5 UFC wins. His central strength here is top control once the fight hits the mat, where he's dangerous grinding from dominant position. His last win came over the No. 38-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Mitchell owns the tested UFC track record, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Luna's volume, pace and length on the feet. The pivot point is the mat: Luna can get it down, yet that plays into Mitchell's control game, so putting him on his back carries real risk. If Luna keeps it standing behind his output and reach across three rounds, his cardio edge grows late. Southpaw-orthodox angles shape the exchanges.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Luna's takedown attempts end with him on top or stuck under Mitchell's control.
- Striking: can Luna use the 10 cm reach and his pressure to keep Mitchell at distance and pile up volume.
- Late rounds: whether Luna's pace holds through the third while Mitchell hunts for control time.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Luna's record, how his volume, pace and takedown game hold up against a far more experienced opponent at this level is hard to read confidently.