← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08-29
Xiao LongLow Data
64.8%
Model
59.1%
Market
1.63
Odds
+5.7
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
STRIKING
P81
Striking Initiative
P80
Volume
P41
Striking Efficiency
P55
Range Sniper
P39
Kickboxing
P92
Clinch Striking
P11
Defensive Striking
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P28
Wrestling
P44
Pressure Wrestling
P60
Top Control
P47
Submission
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P87
Grappling Defense
P23
Scrambler
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P19
Power
P21
Finisher
P74
Damage Resistance
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P27
Fast Starter
P69
Pace
P44
Late Fighter
GLOBAL
P27
Versatility
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LongNuzzi
4.99Landed / min—
4.14Absorbed / min—
46%Accuracy—
47%Defense—
0.27KD / 15—
0.00KD abs / 15—
Grappling / Wrestling
LongNuzzi
0.80TD / 15—
2.66TD att / 15—
30%TD accuracy—
88%TD defense—
2:05Control / 15—
0.00Sub att / 15—
Targets
LongNuzzi
Head56%|—
Body24%|—
Leg21%|—
Position
LongNuzzi
Distance69%|—
Clinch28%|—
Ground2%|—
Ranking evolution Long Nuzzi
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Xiao Long
Xiao Long carries deep experience with a 27-11 record across all organizations, though his UFC run sits at 1-3, with that lone win in his last four appearances. He owns the sharper finishing momentum in his recent outings and has shared the cage with tougher opposition. Fights out of an orthodox stance.
Francesco Nuzzi
Francesco Nuzzi arrives on his UFC debut with an 11-2 record built outside the promotion, riding a one-fight win streak. The standout trait here is his ability to close a fight before the scorecards. He works from a southpaw stance.
Matchup Read
Xiao brings the tested résumé and time against stiffer competition, while Nuzzi owns the more pronounced finishing threat over three rounds. The orthodox-southpaw pairing reshapes the striking angles for both. If Nuzzi can force exchanges where his finishing ability comes into play, the fight may not reach the cards; if Xiao manages the distance and his own recent finishing form holds, this drifts toward a full-distance test of experience.
What to Watch
- Early striking: how each man handles the crossed-stance angles and whose lead hand controls the open-side exchanges.
- Finishing windows: whether Nuzzi can create the moments that end fights early, or Xiao neutralizes them and drags it deeper.
- Late rounds: if it reaches the third, watch whose output holds up over the full fifteen minutes.
Key Uncertainty
With Nuzzi stepping in on his UFC debut and no promotional history to measure him against, how his finishing ability translates against this level of opposition is the main limit on reading the matchup.