← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
Christian EdwardsLow Data
57.4%
Model
38.3%
Market
2.51
Odds
+19.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P9
Striking Initiative
P57
P11
Volume
P43
P36
Striking Efficiency
P81
P11
Range Sniper
P74
P59
Kickboxing
P18
P82
Clinch Striking
P56
P49
Defensive Striking
P11
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P23
Wrestling
P54
P48
Pressure Wrestling
P86
P73
Top Control
P52
P12
Submission
P31
P34
Anti-Wrestling
P13
P45
Grappling Defense
P53
P33
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P14
Power
P79
P46
Finisher
P85
P42
Damage Resistance
P48
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P8
Fast Starter
P3
P32
Pace
P63
P20
Late Fighter
P41
GLOBAL
P30
Versatility
P45
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
EdwardsBellato
2.40Landed / min5.67
2.40Absorbed / min6.30
51%Accuracy58%
55%Defense47%
0.00KD / 150.56
0.00KD abs / 150.56
Grappling / Wrestling
EdwardsBellato
0.00TD / 151.67
4.00TD att / 155.56
0%TD accuracy30%
—TD defense75%
4:22Control / 153:00
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
EdwardsBellato
Head36%|75%
Body47%|16%
Leg17%|9%
Position
EdwardsBellato
Distance75%|43%
Clinch25%|10%
Ground0%|46%
Ranking evolution Edwards Bellato
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Christian Edwards
Christian Edwards works behind sharp distance management and a reliable stand-up defense, using an 8cm reach advantage from the southpaw side to keep exchanges at his range. He owns a durable chin and can grind from top position once the fight hits the mat. Across all organizations he sits at 8-5, dropping his UFC debut to the No. 28-ranked opponent.
Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato brings pressure and volume to the striking, and carries real finishing threat, with recent fights ending before the scorecards. He's 13-3 overall and 2-1 in the UFC, winning two of his last three, riding a one-fight streak. His forward output is his most consistent way to force the pace.
Matchup Read
Bellato owns the tested UFC résumé and the finishing momentum, but Edwards holds the sharper matchup-specific tools at range: reach, movement and a defensive stand-up that can blunt the forward volume. The central question is whether Edwards can keep the fight in open space, since Bellato's pressure and finishing threat grow dangerous once he closes. If it hits the canvas, Edwards's top control and durability shift the exchanges his way.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Edwards can pin Bellato at the end of his jab or gets walked down and pressed into the fence.
- Damage absorbed: how Bellato's finishing power tests Edwards's chin when he does land clean inside.
- On the mat: if the fight hits the ground, whether Edwards can establish and hold top position across three rounds.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC appearance on Edwards's record, his level against this tier of competition is hard to pin down, leaving his range game and durability largely untested at this stage.