← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
John Castaneda vs Alatengheili
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
62.7%
Model
73.0%
Market
1.32
Odds
-10.3
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
STRIKING
P56
Striking Initiative
P11
P58
Volume
P30
P81
Striking Efficiency
P2
P89
Range Sniper
P17
P86
Kickboxing
P14
P27
Clinch Striking
P2
P32
Defensive Striking
P58
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P59
Wrestling
P70
P74
Pressure Wrestling
P60
P71
Top Control
P79
P64
Submission
P24
P47
Anti-Wrestling
P76
P86
Grappling Defense
P98
P15
Scrambler
P15
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P59
Power
P20
P47
Finisher
P5
P43
Damage Resistance
P92
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P75
Fast Starter
P4
P48
Pace
P32
P17
Late Fighter
P78
GLOBAL
P83
Versatility
P27
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CastanedaAlatengheili
4.60Landed / min2.87
5.39Absorbed / min5.44
51%Accuracy33%
52%Defense57%
0.59KD / 150.14
0.45KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
CastanedaAlatengheili
1.64TD / 151.99
4.17TD att / 154.40
39%TD accuracy45%
76%TD defense100%
2:38Control / 152:25
0.15Sub att / 150.00
Targets
CastanedaAlatengheili
Head56%|66%
Body16%|20%
Leg27%|14%
Position
CastanedaAlatengheili
Distance90%|95%
Clinch6%|0%
Ground4%|4%
Ranking evolution Castaneda Alatengheili
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
John Castaneda
John Castaneda brings a 13cm reach advantage and a substantial frame to work behind, paired with slightly higher striking volume and forward pressure. His defensive work has been trending upward lately, and he carries a bit more threat of ending things before the judges. Switch stance lets him vary his looks. All-organizations record sits at 20-8.
Alatengheili
Alatengheili leans on his grappling, holding modest edges both in getting the fight to the mat and in keeping it standing when he wants it there. His striking output has been climbing recently. He's won 3 of his last 5 in the UFC and sits at 17-10 across all organizations.
Matchup Read
Castaneda's early tools, the reach, the pressure, the finishing threat, favor a striking fight where he uses length to work behind his jab. Alatengheili's counter is to close that space and change levels, where his takedown work and ability to dictate where the fight lives become relevant. The switch-stance versatility helps Castaneda manage angles against the orthodox look. Whoever imposes their preferred range across three rounds shapes the scorecards.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Castaneda keeps the fight at range behind his length or Alatengheili closes distance to change levels.
- Grappling: how often Alatengheili's level changes land, and whether Castaneda's improved defensive work keeps it standing.
- Late rounds: whose pace holds up across three rounds as Alatengheili's rising output meets Castaneda's pressure.
Key Uncertainty
Both men are coming off 17 months out of competition, so how sharp either looks after such a layoff is an open question that could shift the reading of this matchup.