← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Josiah Harrell vs Elves Brener
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
Josiah HarrellLow Data
vs Elves Brener
56.8%
Model
54.1%
Market
1.78
Odds
+2.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P0
Striking Initiative
P64
P5
Volume
P75
P73
Striking Efficiency
P83
P60
Range Sniper
P92
P100
Kickboxing
P94
P53
Clinch Striking
P4
P24
Defensive Striking
P33
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P33
Wrestling
P35
P68
Pressure Wrestling
P32
P0
Top Control
P13
P36
Submission
P57
P32
Anti-Wrestling
P84
P22
Grappling Defense
P81
P33
Scrambler
P59
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P31
Power
P29
P57
Finisher
P84
P39
Damage Resistance
P49
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P6
Fast Starter
P6
P2
Pace
P44
—
Late Fighter
P61
GLOBAL
P24
Versatility
P64
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
HarrellBrener
2.32Landed / min4.76
10.94Absorbed / min5.86
50%Accuracy48%
30%Defense51%
0.00KD / 150.40
0.00KD abs / 150.40
Grappling / Wrestling
HarrellBrener
0.00TD / 150.99
9.94TD att / 155.93
0%TD accuracy17%
0%TD defense76%
0:05Control / 151:13
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
HarrellBrener
Head14%|57%
Body43%|19%
Leg43%|24%
Position
HarrellBrener
Distance100%|92%
Clinch0%|3%
Ground0%|5%
Ranking evolution Harrell Brener
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Josiah Harrell
Josiah Harrell arrives with an 11-1 mark across all organizations but dropped his UFC debut, leaving him 0-1 in the promotion. His most relevant tool here is finishing: he carries slightly more threat to end things before the scorecards. He fights southpaw and last beat modest regional opposition.
Elves Brener
Elves Brener sits 3-3 in the UFC and 16-6 overall, with 2 wins in his last 5 Octagon trips. He manages range well and defends the takedown to keep exchanges standing, backed by a solid chin and the longer, taller frame. His volume and top control lean in his favor too.
Matchup Read
The stand-up favors Brener, who manages distance behind a 10 cm reach advantage and absorbs damage well, while Harrell's slight finishing threat gives him the clearer path to a decisive moment if he can close that gap. Brener's takedown defense also complicates any attempt to drag this to the mat, where his own top control would wait. Harrell needs to find range and land clean against a durable target over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Harrell can close the 10 cm reach gap and land clean, or Brener keeps him at the end of his jab.
- Grappling: if Harrell shoots, watch whether Brener stuffs it and resets standing rather than ending up underneath.
- Durability: how Brener's chin holds up against Harrell's finishing attempts if a clean shot lands.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this is complicated by Harrell having only one UFC fight on record and by Brener entering off a 13.8-month layoff, so recent form on both sides is thin.