← UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05-30
69.1%
Model
72.3%
Market
1.33
Odds
-3.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P15
Striking Initiative
P59
P50
Volume
P99
P3
Striking Efficiency
P30
P8
Range Sniper
P30
P23
Kickboxing
P69
P24
Clinch Striking
P18
P48
Defensive Striking
P93
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P21
Wrestling
P15
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P1
Top Control
P0
P18
Submission
P5
P8
Anti-Wrestling
P2
P12
Grappling Defense
P14
P32
Scrambler
P25
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P30
Power
P15
P49
Finisher
P21
P48
Damage Resistance
P64
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P2
Fast Starter
P4
P1
Pace
P17
—
Late Fighter
P87
GLOBAL
P4
Versatility
P7
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AsakuraSmotherman
2.27Landed / min4.07
3.53Absorbed / min3.31
33%Accuracy37%
52%Defense60%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AsakuraSmotherman
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
50%TD defense63%
0:22Control / 150:01
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AsakuraSmotherman
Head71%|60%
Body21%|37%
Leg8%|3%
Position
AsakuraSmotherman
Distance100%|95%
Clinch0%|5%
Ground0%|0%
Ranking evolution Asakura Smotherman
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kai Asakura
Asakura arrives with a deep 21-6 record across all organizations and a recent win over the No. 24-ranked opponent, the better-tested resume in this pairing. He carries a slight edge in closing fights before the scorecards, giving him finishing upside across three rounds.
Cameron Smotherman
Smotherman owns a modest 12-6 overall mark but brings a few matchup-specific tools: a slight advantage in striking output and forward pressure, plus a slight edge in keeping exchanges upright and defending takedown attempts. Notably, he has avoided a recent stoppage loss.
Matchup Read
Smotherman's takedown defense meets whatever grappling Asakura looks to impose, and if the fight stays standing it plays into Smotherman's slight edge in volume and pressure. Asakura's counter is finishing instinct: he carries the stronger threat of ending things early, so the question is whether Smotherman's higher output across three rounds outweighs Asakura's ability to force a decisive moment before the scorecards.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Smotherman establishes his pace and pressure or Asakura disrupts it with a fight-ending shot.
- Grappling: how often Asakura changes levels and whether Smotherman keeps the fight standing against the cage.
- Late rounds: whether Smotherman's volume compounds on the scorecards or Asakura finds a finish before the third.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Asakura's record, both losses, his level against this caliber of opposition inside the organization is hard to pin down with confidence.