Song's takedown defense meets Figueiredo's push to get the fight to the mat, where his submission threat lives. If Song keeps it standing, his output and pressure dictate the exchanges over five rounds. If Figueiredo lands his entries and drags it down, the ground becomes dangerous territory fast. His general finishing threat also raises the stakes early, while Song's recent durability and rising top control matter the longer this stays competitive.

Menifield brings the longer tested track record, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Zhang, who pairs forward pressure and volume with the ability to drag the fight down. If Zhang's level changes land, his improving top control and finishing instinct turn into real danger over three rounds. Menifield's rising output matters most if he can keep this standing and make Zhang pay on the way in rather than fighting off his back.

Pavlovich owns the more tested résumé against ranked heavyweights, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Teixeira's grappling: his takedown entries and top control are where he can take Pavlovich out of open space. Pavlovich's job is to keep this standing in the southpaw-orthodox exchanges, where his durability lets him trade, and avoid giving up position. If Teixeira grounds him, his control becomes the central problem.

Smotherman's takedown defense meets whatever grappling Asakura looks to impose, and if the fight stays standing it plays into Smotherman's slight edge in volume and pressure. Asakura's counter is finishing instinct: he carries the stronger threat of ending things early, so the question is whether Smotherman's higher output across three rounds outweighs Asakura's ability to force a decisive moment before the scorecards.

Harris's length and rising volume meet Matthews's durability and submission game head-on. If Harris keeps it at range, his reach shapes the striking exchanges and his output can accumulate. Matthews's path runs through clinch and grappling, where his recent submission threat becomes the central danger and his ability to scramble up off his back keeps him from being pinned. Over three rounds, Matthews's pace management adds weight as the fight extends.

Aoriqileng brings the tested résumé and deep cage time, but Haddon owns the sharper striking tools for this matchup. The fight likely hinges on whether Haddon's volume and pressure override Aoriqileng's tightened defense across three rounds. If Haddon imposes pace early, his finishing threat grows; if Aoriqileng's defensive gains hold and he keeps exchanges short, his own finishing momentum becomes the counterweight late.

Standing favors Gurule's volume and forward pressure, while the mat is where Tsuruya's top control and finishing threat take over. The central question is whether Gurule can keep it at range behind his output and make Tsuruya pay for level changes, or whether Tsuruya closes distance, drags it down and grinds from top. Tsuruya's reach helps him work from outside; Gurule's late pace grows in value if this stays standing across three rounds.