← UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Rei Tsuruya vs Luis Gurule
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05-30
81.5%
Model
64.8%
Market
1.49
Odds
+16.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P1
Striking Initiative
P76
P2
Volume
P85
P11
Striking Efficiency
P45
P4
Range Sniper
P49
P8
Kickboxing
P58
P30
Clinch Striking
P35
P17
Defensive Striking
P68
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P80
Wrestling
P30
P95
Pressure Wrestling
P52
P78
Top Control
P49
P36
Submission
P24
P20
Anti-Wrestling
P86
P23
Grappling Defense
P72
P35
Scrambler
P46
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P18
Power
P18
P52
Finisher
P13
P50
Damage Resistance
P48
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P71
Fast Starter
P31
P55
Pace
P67
P75
Late Fighter
P93
GLOBAL
P18
Versatility
P41
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TsuruyaGurule
1.63Landed / min5.32
2.50Absorbed / min5.68
42%Accuracy41%
42%Defense58%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.29
Grappling / Wrestling
TsuruyaGurule
3.50TD / 150.87
14.50TD att / 154.91
24%TD accuracy18%
50%TD defense75%
5:04Control / 151:51
0.00Sub att / 150.29
Targets
TsuruyaGurule
Head88%|75%
Body8%|10%
Leg4%|15%
Position
TsuruyaGurule
Distance69%|90%
Clinch4%|9%
Ground27%|1%
Ranking evolution Tsuruya Gurule
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rei Tsuruya
Tsuruya brings strong top control and a live finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, where his ground game ends fights before the judges weigh in. He uses a 10 cm reach advantage to help manage distance, with reasonably sound stand-up defense. Carries a 10-1 record across all organizations.
Luis Gurule
Gurule's game is built on striking output and forward pressure, keeping a steady, pushing pace in the stand-up. His cardio holds up well into the later going, letting him sustain that volume deep into a fight. He sits at 11-3 overall and comes in off a quick turnaround.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Gurule's volume and forward pressure, while the mat is where Tsuruya's top control and finishing threat take over. The central question is whether Gurule can keep it at range behind his output and make Tsuruya pay for level changes, or whether Tsuruya closes distance, drags it down and grinds from top. Tsuruya's reach helps him work from outside; Gurule's late pace grows in value if this stays standing across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Gurule can establish his volume and pressure before Tsuruya changes levels and closes the distance.
- Grappling: once it hits the mat, how quickly Tsuruya establishes top position and threatens to finish.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays standing, whether Gurule's sustained pace starts tilting the exchanges in the third.
Key Uncertainty
Reading Tsuruya is harder with only two UFC fights on record and a layoff of nearly 15 months since he last competed, leaving limited recent form to lean on.