← UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05-30
74.6%
Model
72.3%
Market
1.33
Odds
+2.3
Edge (pp)
established · 23 UFC fightsestablished · 23 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P38
Striking Initiative
P64
P40
Volume
P63
P26
Striking Efficiency
P37
P24
Range Sniper
P49
P19
Kickboxing
P46
P32
Clinch Striking
P31
P80
Defensive Striking
P47
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P56
Wrestling
P50
P59
Pressure Wrestling
P88
P68
Top Control
P63
P84
Submission
P71
P84
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P53
Grappling Defense
P15
P83
Scrambler
P30
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P26
Power
P48
P45
Finisher
P26
P64
Damage Resistance
P9
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P40
Fast Starter
P69
P62
Pace
P84
P14
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P69
Versatility
P31
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MatthewsHarris
3.34Landed / min3.79
2.62Absorbed / min3.46
44%Accuracy44%
60%Defense54%
0.29KD / 150.59
0.23KD abs / 150.88
Grappling / Wrestling
MatthewsHarris
1.44TD / 151.46
3.45TD att / 156.44
42%TD accuracy23%
64%TD defense56%
3:39Control / 153:32
0.75Sub att / 150.59
Targets
MatthewsHarris
Head71%|64%
Body17%|24%
Leg11%|12%
Position
MatthewsHarris
Distance71%|79%
Clinch8%|7%
Ground22%|14%
Ranking evolution Matthews Harris
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jake Matthews
Jake Matthews comes in with real recent finishing form, highlighted by a submission threat that's been showing up in his results. He's shown the ability to work back to his feet when put on the mat, holds up well when hit, and manages his pace across three rounds. UFC record sits at 15-8, 3 of his last 5.
Carlston Harris
Carlston Harris brings a frame and reach advantage, roughly 8 cm longer, and his striking output has been trending upward over recent outings. He holds a 4-3 UFC mark and 19-7 across all organizations, though he's been out for over 16 months since his last fight.
Matchup Read
Harris's length and rising volume meet Matthews's durability and submission game head-on. If Harris keeps it at range, his reach shapes the striking exchanges and his output can accumulate. Matthews's path runs through clinch and grappling, where his recent submission threat becomes the central danger and his ability to scramble up off his back keeps him from being pinned. Over three rounds, Matthews's pace management adds weight as the fight extends.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Harris can plant his jab behind the 8 cm reach or Matthews closes the gap to clinch range.
- Grappling: once it hits the mat, how quickly Matthews threatens submissions versus Harris defending and staying off bottom.
- Late rounds: whether Harris's volume holds into round three or Matthews's pacing takes over down the stretch.
Key Uncertainty
Harris has been out for over 16 months since his last fight, a long absence that clouds how sharp his timing and output will be from the opening exchanges.