← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
58.1%
Model
78.8%
Market
1.22
Odds
-20.7
Edge (pp)
established · 22 UFC fightsestablished · 22 fights
Style Matchup
established · 35 UFC fightsestablished · 35 fights
STRIKING
P46
Striking Initiative
P68
P43
Volume
P56
P27
Striking Efficiency
P38
P25
Range Sniper
P18
P20
Kickboxing
P16
P34
Clinch Striking
P86
P82
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P58
Wrestling
P75
P58
Pressure Wrestling
P66
P65
Top Control
P46
P83
Submission
P37
P82
Anti-Wrestling
P8
P62
Grappling Defense
P8
P80
Scrambler
P70
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P28
Power
P18
P46
Finisher
P7
P62
Damage Resistance
P18
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P25
P67
Pace
P82
P22
Late Fighter
P99
GLOBAL
P76
Versatility
P25
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MatthewsMagny
3.44Landed / min3.45
2.63Absorbed / min2.47
44%Accuracy47%
61%Defense52%
0.30KD / 150.07
0.24KD abs / 150.39
Grappling / Wrestling
MatthewsMagny
1.51TD / 152.15
3.58TD att / 155.49
42%TD accuracy39%
68%TD defense55%
3:33Control / 153:14
0.61Sub att / 150.25
Targets
MatthewsMagny
Head71%|71%
Body17%|19%
Leg11%|10%
Position
MatthewsMagny
Distance70%|58%
Clinch8%|18%
Ground22%|24%
Ranking evolution Matthews Magny
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jake Matthews
Jake Matthews arrives on a three-fight run, his striking output climbing recently and his submission threat a live weapon in exchanges. His durability has held up in recent outings, and his form has stayed steady without any dip. He owns a 15-7 UFC mark, 22-8 overall, winning four of his last five in the Octagon.
Neil Magny
Neil Magny brings a significant frame edge, with 18 cm of reach and 10 cm of height to work behind. His recent knockout power stands out, and his gas tank over the distance is a consistent asset as fights wear on. He carries a deep 23-12 UFC record, 30-17 across all organizations.
Matchup Read
The standing exchanges pull in opposite directions: Magny's long frame and recent power reward keeping range, while Matthews' rising output and submission threat make the pockets and any ground scramble his territory. If Matthews closes distance and drags this into grappling, his finishing on the mat becomes the central danger. Left at range and dragged late, Magny's reach and stronger tank over the distance grow in value the longer it runs.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Matthews can close the 18 cm reach gap or eats Magny's power at the end of the jab.
- Grappling: any time the fight hits the mat, watch for Matthews hunting submissions off scrambles.
- Late rounds: signs of Magny leaning on his cardio and length as the pace stretches out.