← UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05-30
55.9%
Model
80.4%
Market
1.20
Odds
-24.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P91
Striking Initiative
P60
P79
Volume
P17
P64
Striking Efficiency
P66
P69
Range Sniper
P40
P55
Kickboxing
P11
P12
Clinch Striking
P64
P57
Defensive Striking
P14
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P11
Wrestling
P69
P49
Pressure Wrestling
P95
P69
Top Control
P82
P4
Submission
P10
P52
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P85
Grappling Defense
P17
P11
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P99
Power
P98
P62
Finisher
P81
P44
Damage Resistance
P27
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P72
Fast Starter
P75
P56
Pace
P89
P35
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P59
Versatility
P41
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PavlovichTeixeira
4.43Landed / min3.84
3.62Absorbed / min3.15
44%Accuracy70%
56%Defense33%
1.67KD / 150.93
0.24KD abs / 150.93
Grappling / Wrestling
PavlovichTeixeira
0.48TD / 152.78
1.91TD att / 159.28
25%TD accuracy30%
75%TD defense—
1:48Control / 156:40
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PavlovichTeixeira
Head83%|76%
Body11%|21%
Leg6%|3%
Position
PavlovichTeixeira
Distance82%|48%
Clinch7%|11%
Ground11%|40%
Ranking evolution Pavlovich Teixeira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Sergei Pavlovich
Pavlovich has faced the sharper end of the division, with his last win over the No. 10-ranked opponent and his last loss only to the No. 6. He absorbs damage well and his ground control has been trending upward lately. Southpaw, 20-3 overall, 8-3 in the UFC, riding a two-fight streak.
Tallison Teixeira
Teixeira brings strong top control once the fight hits the mat and some ability to drag it there. His striking output has been climbing recently, and his form has held steady without recent dips. He stands 10 cm taller, is orthodox, and carries a 9-1 overall mark with a 2-1 UFC record.
Matchup Read
Pavlovich owns the more tested résumé against ranked heavyweights, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Teixeira's grappling: his takedown entries and top control are where he can take Pavlovich out of open space. Pavlovich's job is to keep this standing in the southpaw-orthodox exchanges, where his durability lets him trade, and avoid giving up position. If Teixeira grounds him, his control becomes the central problem.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Teixeira's level changes land and, once down, how long he holds top position before Pavlovich works back up.
- Early striking: whether Pavlovich can establish range in the crossed-stance exchanges before the height gap and reach get used against him.
- Durability: how Pavlovich holds up absorbing shots if the fight stays standing across three rounds.