← UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Ryan Spann vs Marcus Buchecha
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04-25
Ryan SpannLow Data
67.7%
Model
46.6%
Market
2.07
Odds
+21.0
Edge (pp)
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P14
Striking Initiative
P7
P32
Volume
P2
P14
Striking Efficiency
P3
P40
Range Sniper
P2
P18
Kickboxing
P6
P34
Clinch Striking
P74
P2
Defensive Striking
P41
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P49
Wrestling
P46
P40
Pressure Wrestling
P94
P59
Top Control
P82
P99
Submission
P46
P85
Anti-Wrestling
P50
P32
Grappling Defense
P35
P88
Scrambler
P86
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P53
Power
P2
P93
Finisher
P69
P16
Damage Resistance
P42
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P58
Fast Starter
P4
P53
Pace
P47
P36
Late Fighter
P7
GLOBAL
P9
Versatility
P15
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SpannBuchecha
3.16Landed / min1.60
4.06Absorbed / min2.73
39%Accuracy40%
44%Defense52%
0.82KD / 150.00
0.66KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SpannBuchecha
1.31TD / 151.00
3.77TD att / 1511.00
35%TD accuracy9%
50%TD defense—
3:19Control / 155:05
1.64Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SpannBuchecha
Head75%|58%
Body18%|42%
Leg6%|0%
Position
SpannBuchecha
Distance73%|67%
Clinch8%|25%
Ground19%|8%
Ranking evolution Spann Buchecha
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ryan Spann
Spann brings the more tested résumé with a 9-6 UFC mark and 22-10 overall. His recent run shows real finishing momentum, with submission threat an active part of that. He holds up well deep into fights, maintaining pace and output late, and adds forward striking pressure plus a reach and height advantage.
Marcus Buchecha
Buchecha's grappling shows in his ability to work free from bottom position and scramble back to his feet, and his defensive sharpness has been trending upward recently. He carries a 5-2 overall record into this fight after dropping his UFC debut.
Matchup Read
Spann brings the more tested track record and the late-fight tools, while Buchecha owns the sharper matchup-specific wrinkle in his get-up game. If Spann hunts the submissions that fueled his recent run, he meets a man built to escape bottom control and stand back up, so his finishes may need to come from top pressure or on the feet. Over a longer fight, Spann's pace and conditioning become the thread Buchecha has to withstand.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Buchecha scrambles back to his feet when Spann threatens submissions or top control.
- Late rounds: whether Spann's pace and output stay high while Buchecha is forced to keep answering it.
- Early striking: whether Spann uses his reach and height to pressure behind volume at range.
Key Uncertainty
With just one UFC fight on Buchecha's record, there's limited high-level tape to confirm how his grappling and improving defense translate against a seasoned opponent like Spann.