← UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Michel Pereira vs Zach Reese
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02-21
55.7%
Model
57.3%
Market
1.68
Odds
-1.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P57
Striking Initiative
P75
P70
Volume
P58
P94
Striking Efficiency
P91
P94
Range Sniper
P73
P95
Kickboxing
P74
P60
Clinch Striking
P76
P35
Defensive Striking
P3
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P54
Wrestling
P90
P40
Pressure Wrestling
P71
P19
Top Control
P50
P72
Submission
P54
P59
Anti-Wrestling
P24
P76
Grappling Defense
P33
P41
Scrambler
P83
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P34
Power
P67
P33
Finisher
P77
P70
Damage Resistance
P48
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P53
Fast Starter
P80
P18
Pace
P76
P96
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P94
Versatility
P65
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PereiraReese
4.49Landed / min4.30
4.34Absorbed / min3.68
52%Accuracy57%
52%Defense39%
0.31KD / 150.36
0.10KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PereiraReese
1.13TD / 153.58
2.16TD att / 155.38
52%TD accuracy67%
76%TD defense61%
1:07Control / 153:29
0.72Sub att / 151.08
Targets
PereiraReese
Head46%|58%
Body43%|26%
Leg11%|16%
Position
PereiraReese
Distance85%|66%
Clinch11%|15%
Ground4%|19%
Ranking evolution Pereira Reese
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michel Pereira
Michel Pereira has tested himself against a higher tier of competition, and his takedown defense gives him a route to keep exchanges upright. His deep 32-14 all-organizations record reflects long experience, though his recent UFC run sits at 2 wins in his last 5.
Zach Reese
Zach Reese carries real finishing ability and comes in on a 2-fight win streak, with 4 wins in his last 5 UFC outings. He owns a 10cm reach advantage, brings a slight edge in getting the fight down, and his top control has been trending upward lately.
Matchup Read
Pereira brings the tougher slate of opponents faced, but Reese owns the sharper matchup-specific tools here. Reese's push to get the fight down meets Pereira's takedown defense, the central contest that shapes where this plays out. If Reese lands his entries, his rising top control and finishing threat become live. Pereira's job is keeping it standing, where his defensive wrestling and stronger competition history matter most.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Reese converts his level changes or Pereira stuffs them and resets to open space.
- Early striking: how Pereira handles the 10cm reach gap and works his way inside from orthodox.
- If it hits the mat: whether Reese can hold top position long enough to threaten a finish or Pereira scrambles free.