← UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02-21
67.0%
Model
39.5%
Market
2.44
Odds
+27.6
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P32
Striking Initiative
P97
P15
Volume
P97
P39
Striking Efficiency
P92
P10
Range Sniper
P94
P5
Kickboxing
P76
P13
Clinch Striking
P40
P9
Defensive Striking
P38
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P98
Wrestling
P22
P74
Pressure Wrestling
P19
P82
Top Control
P6
P77
Submission
P41
P77
Anti-Wrestling
P1
P63
Grappling Defense
P1
P88
Scrambler
P35
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P87
P92
Finisher
P53
P42
Damage Resistance
P29
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P88
Fast Starter
P59
P74
Pace
P62
P59
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P67
Versatility
P22
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SpivacDelija
3.45Landed / min4.81
4.25Absorbed / min2.65
48%Accuracy45%
50%Defense38%
0.00KD / 152.49
0.27KD abs / 152.49
Grappling / Wrestling
SpivacDelija
4.21TD / 150.00
6.79TD att / 152.49
62%TD accuracy0%
64%TD defense—
5:11Control / 151:22
0.54Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SpivacDelija
Head93%|90%
Body4%|7%
Leg3%|3%
Position
SpivacDelija
Distance55%|83%
Clinch4%|3%
Ground41%|14%
Ranking evolution Spivac Delija
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Serghei Spivac
Spivac's game runs through his top control, where he's able to pin opponents and grind from dominant position once the fight hits the mat. He's held up well recently in terms of absorbing damage, and his last win came against the No. 8-ranked opponent. UFC record of 8-6, 17-6 across all organizations.
Ante Delija
Delija brings heavy hands, with real knockout power and finishing momentum carrying through his recent fights. His defensive work has been improving, and he adds modest volume and forward pressure on the feet. A deep 26-7 record across all organizations, though just 1-1 inside the UFC, with his last win over the No. 14-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Delija carries the bigger résumé by raw record, but the matchup-specific tools point to Spivac's wrestling. The fight splits cleanly by phase: standing, Delija's power and pressure are the central danger, and Spivac has recently been exposed to a stoppage loss. On the mat, Spivac's top control is where he can take over and neutralize that power. Whoever dictates where the fight lives tends to dictate the outcome.
What to Watch
- Phase control: whether Spivac can close distance and change levels before eating Delija's power on the entries.
- Early striking: how cleanly Delija lands his heavier shots and keeps the fight vertical.
- On the mat: if Spivac secures top position, watch how long he holds it and whether Delija can work back up.
Key Uncertainty
Delija has only two UFC fights on record, so how his power and improving defense hold up against this level of grappling remains hard to read with confidence.