← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
82.0%
Model
82.8%
Market
1.16
Odds
-0.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P77
Striking Initiative
P91
P44
Volume
P95
P91
Striking Efficiency
P64
P69
Range Sniper
P64
P86
Kickboxing
P72
P75
Clinch Striking
P4
P39
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P72
Wrestling
P26
P68
Pressure Wrestling
P12
P78
Top Control
P56
P42
Submission
P33
P36
Anti-Wrestling
P56
P74
Grappling Defense
P76
P34
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P7
P84
Finisher
P29
P50
Damage Resistance
P66
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P76
Fast Starter
P10
P91
Pace
P55
P23
Late Fighter
P83
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P33
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SusurkaevSantos
4.77Landed / min7.67
4.02Absorbed / min7.60
59%Accuracy41%
54%Defense47%
0.80KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SusurkaevSantos
3.22TD / 150.50
11.26TD att / 152.00
29%TD accuracy25%
100%TD defense—
5:15Control / 151:11
0.80Sub att / 150.00
Targets
SusurkaevSantos
Head48%|82%
Body36%|8%
Leg16%|10%
Position
SusurkaevSantos
Distance72%|98%
Clinch15%|0%
Ground13%|2%
Ranking evolution Susurkaev Santos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Baisangur Susurkaev
Susurkaev arrives unbeaten at 11-0, 2-0 in the UFC, riding an 11-fight win streak. His strongest tools here are top control once the fight hits the mat and a proven ability to close shows before the scorecards, backed by a 10 cm reach advantage. His recent finishing momentum stands out, and his range work is a minor plus.
Djorden Santos
Santos sits at 11-2 overall and 1-1 in the UFC, having won one of his last 2 appearances against modest regional opposition. His edge in this pairing is a slight one in striking volume and forward pressure, giving him a reason to keep exchanges upright and busy.
Matchup Read
Susurkaev brings the cleaner résumé and the finishing record, but the technical question is whether Santos's slight edge in striking volume and pressure can keep this standing. If Santos works behind busy output, he lives in his best phase; the moment Susurkaev closes distance and converts to top position, his control and finishing threat take over. Susurkaev's reach also shapes where those exchanges start. The ground is where the fight most likely turns.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Santos can stack volume and walk forward, or Susurkaev uses his reach to keep exchanges at range.
- Grappling: how quickly Susurkaev changes levels, and whether he holds top position once the fight hits the mat.
- Finishing windows: whether Susurkaev threatens a stoppage across three rounds or Santos drags it into later exchanges on the feet.
Key Uncertainty
Both men carry only two UFC fights apiece, so their ceilings against higher-level opposition remain lightly tested and this read rests on a thin top-tier sample.