← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
55.7%
Model
36.0%
Market
2.68
Odds
+19.7
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P19
P97
Volume
P3
P100
Striking Efficiency
P33
P93
Range Sniper
P11
P98
Kickboxing
P11
P44
Clinch Striking
P10
P73
Defensive Striking
P6
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P90
P45
Pressure Wrestling
P89
P33
Top Control
P98
P13
Submission
P86
P37
Anti-Wrestling
P96
P71
Grappling Defense
P34
P4
Scrambler
P98
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P78
Power
P73
P42
Finisher
P78
P76
Damage Resistance
P69
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P56
Fast Starter
P64
P46
Pace
P81
P99
Late Fighter
P75
GLOBAL
P94
Versatility
P47
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VanTaira
8.84Landed / min2.94
6.39Absorbed / min2.44
57%Accuracy60%
58%Defense47%
0.60KD / 150.47
0.12KD abs / 150.16
Grappling / Wrestling
VanTaira
0.84TD / 153.12
1.33TD att / 156.72
64%TD accuracy47%
81%TD defense45%
1:07Control / 158:14
0.00Sub att / 151.56
Targets
VanTaira
Head70%|77%
Body20%|8%
Leg9%|15%
Position
VanTaira
Distance88%|50%
Clinch8%|4%
Ground4%|47%
Ranking evolution Van Taira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Joshua Van
Joshua Van brings high output and forward pressure on the feet, backed by takedown defense that keeps exchanges where he wants them. He rides a 6-fight win streak at 9-1 in the UFC, with 5 wins in his last 5, most recently beating the No. 1-ranked opponent.
Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro Taira works behind sharp distance control and stand-up defense, with a strong top game and recent submission threat once the fight hits the mat. Durable, and the longer man by 13 cm in reach. He sits at 18-1 overall, 8-1 in the UFC, last beating the No. 2-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Van's volume and pressure; the mat brings Taira's control and submission danger. The central question is whether Van can close the 13 cm reach gap against Taira's defensive distance work and land inside without getting timed. Van's takedown defense directly meets Taira's push to drag it down, where Taira's top game and finishing threat take over. If Van keeps it standing and busy, he dictates; if Taira grounds him, the complexion shifts.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Van closes the reach gap and gets inside, or Taira keeps him at the end of punches.
- Grappling: every level change by Taira is a test of Van's takedown defense and his ability to stay off the mat.
- Late rounds: with five scheduled, watch whether Van's pace holds or Taira's control time accumulates deeper in.