← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
King Green vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
79.7%
Model
72.2%
Market
1.33
Odds
+7.4
Edge (pp)
established · 27 UFC fightsestablished · 27 fights
Style Matchup
established · 34 UFC fightsestablished · 34 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P31
P91
Volume
P41
P94
Striking Efficiency
P15
P75
Range Sniper
P38
P90
Kickboxing
P28
P41
Clinch Striking
P29
P95
Defensive Striking
P79
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P54
Wrestling
P43
P51
Pressure Wrestling
P53
P58
Top Control
P46
P64
Submission
P33
P98
Anti-Wrestling
P57
P91
Grappling Defense
P32
P52
Scrambler
P72
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P32
Power
P83
P37
Finisher
P57
P46
Damage Resistance
P74
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P89
Fast Starter
P6
P76
Pace
P39
P97
Late Fighter
P87
GLOBAL
P100
Versatility
P20
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GreenStephens
6.50Landed / min3.16
3.48Absorbed / min3.14
55%Accuracy41%
63%Defense59%
0.31KD / 150.67
0.26KD abs / 150.19
Grappling / Wrestling
GreenStephens
1.28TD / 151.11
2.76TD att / 152.89
46%TD accuracy38%
74%TD defense62%
2:10Control / 152:39
0.26Sub att / 150.37
Targets
GreenStephens
Head58%|59%
Body25%|17%
Leg17%|24%
Position
GreenStephens
Distance83%|74%
Clinch8%|10%
Ground9%|17%
Ranking evolution Green Stephens
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
King Green
King Green rides a two-fight win streak with his striking output and pressure climbing, both his volume and his control of the exchanges trending upward. Recent fights show real finishing power and knockout momentum, and he can lean on his takedown defense to keep things upright. His form has held steady with no recent dip.
Jeremy Stephens
Jeremy Stephens brings a long professional résumé across all organizations, but he's dropped his last five UFC appearances and has been out of action for over a year. His most recent loss came against lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Stephens carries the deeper tested background, but the matchup-specific tools point toward Green. Green's rising volume and pressure, combined with his takedown defense, suggest he can keep this standing and dictate the striking exchanges over three rounds. His recent knockout power makes any clean exchange dangerous for Stephens. The decisive question is whether Stephens can disrupt that output early before Green's pace and finishing threat stack up.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Green's forward pressure and volume force Stephens into trading on the back foot.
- Grappling: if Stephens looks to change levels, watch whether Green stuffs it and resets the fight standing.
- Finishing windows: track Green's power in any clean exchange, given his recent knockout momentum over three rounds.
Key Uncertainty
Stephens has been out of action for over a year, which clouds how sharp his timing and output will be stepping back in against an active, pressuring opponent.