← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
68.6%
Model
62.6%
Market
1.54
Odds
+6.0
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
STRIKING
P79
Striking Initiative
P58
P39
Volume
P78
P80
Striking Efficiency
P8
P38
Range Sniper
P35
P74
Kickboxing
P18
P27
Clinch Striking
P12
P70
Defensive Striking
P83
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P95
Wrestling
P61
P94
Pressure Wrestling
P26
P99
Top Control
P32
P72
Submission
P9
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P62
P97
Grappling Defense
P74
P78
Scrambler
P49
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P13
Power
P93
P15
Finisher
P62
P58
Damage Resistance
P28
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P47
Fast Starter
P47
P89
Pace
P67
P5
Late Fighter
P53
GLOBAL
P100
Versatility
P28
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BradyBuckley
3.96Landed / min3.88
3.05Absorbed / min2.93
55%Accuracy37%
59%Defense59%
0.11KD / 150.73
0.11KD abs / 150.32
Grappling / Wrestling
BradyBuckley
3.53TD / 151.54
6.60TD att / 153.41
53%TD accuracy45%
87%TD defense72%
6:32Control / 151:47
0.91Sub att / 150.08
Targets
BradyBuckley
Head68%|62%
Body8%|28%
Leg24%|10%
Position
BradyBuckley
Distance81%|75%
Clinch5%|6%
Ground14%|19%
Ranking evolution Brady Buckley
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Sean Brady
Sean Brady's game lives on the mat, where his top control and ground finishing both stand out, backed by a recent submission threat that makes his advances dangerous. His 18-2 overall record and a win over the No. 2-ranked opponent mark him as proven against quality welterweights.
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley carries a physical edge in reach and frame, a 10 cm span he can work behind, plus durability and a gas tank that holds up deep into fights. His 4 of his last 5 UFC wins and a recent victory over the No. 4-ranked opponent reflect strong current form.
Matchup Read
Buckley owns the tested recent résumé and physical tools, but Brady holds the sharper route for this matchup: his top control and ground finishing. The fight hinges on whether Brady can close the 10 cm reach gap, get inside the southpaw's frame, and ground him. If Buckley keeps it standing behind his length and uses his durability and cardio, the exchanges tilt his way over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Entries: whether Brady can clear the reach and change levels against the southpaw stance to get the fight down.
- Ground exchanges: once Brady is on top, whether Buckley can defend the control and survive the submission threat.
- Late rounds: if it stays standing, whether Buckley's cardio and durability keep him sharp across three rounds.