← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Brandon Royval
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
69.4%
Model
63.8%
Market
1.51
Odds
+5.6
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P51
Striking Initiative
P99
P68
Volume
P100
P71
Striking Efficiency
P56
P58
Range Sniper
P68
P75
Kickboxing
P47
P20
Clinch Striking
P14
P65
Defensive Striking
P3
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P48
Wrestling
P40
P42
Pressure Wrestling
P16
P40
Top Control
P8
P20
Submission
P88
P87
Anti-Wrestling
P24
P85
Grappling Defense
P7
P56
Scrambler
P58
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P20
Power
P27
P7
Finisher
P69
P42
Damage Resistance
P33
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P18
Fast Starter
P25
P33
Pace
P54
P12
Late Fighter
P99
GLOBAL
P63
Versatility
P21
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
KavanaghRoyval
4.10Landed / min5.54
3.47Absorbed / min4.25
48%Accuracy42%
56%Defense43%
0.00KD / 150.32
0.23KD abs / 150.43
Grappling / Wrestling
KavanaghRoyval
1.16TD / 150.65
2.55TD att / 150.87
45%TD accuracy75%
94%TD defense45%
1:45Control / 151:02
0.23Sub att / 151.08
Targets
KavanaghRoyval
Head58%|77%
Body23%|15%
Leg19%|7%
Position
KavanaghRoyval
Distance85%|88%
Clinch6%|5%
Ground10%|8%
Ranking evolution Kavanagh Royval
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Lone'er Kavanagh
Kavanagh keeps fights where he wants them, with strong takedown defense that lets him dictate standing exchanges. His defensive work has been sharpening recently. He sits on a 3-1 UFC mark and a 10-1 overall record, with his last win coming against a No. 5-ranked opponent.
Brandon Royval
Royval brings real danger on the ground, where his submission threat stands out, and his striking volume has been climbing. He holds up well as the pace stretches late and offers steady output under pressure. His experience runs deep at 17-9 overall, with a recent win over a No. 7-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Kavanagh's takedown defense meets Royval's push to drag this to the floor, where Royval's finishing threat is most real. If Kavanagh keeps it upright, he avoids the worst danger, but Royval's rising volume and late-round pace tilt longer exchanges his way. The central question is whether Kavanagh can stuff entries and manage Royval's output across three rounds, with the 8 cm height gap adding reach for Royval at distance.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Royval can change levels and get Kavanagh down, or gets stuffed and kept standing.
- Striking: how Kavanagh handles Royval's volume and the 8 cm height difference at range.
- Late rounds: whether the pace climbs into Royval's favor as the third approaches.