← UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09-19
73.2%
Model
52.1%
Market
1.85
Odds
+21.1
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
STRIKING
P100
Striking Initiative
P51
P98
Volume
P53
P100
Striking Efficiency
P70
P95
Range Sniper
P60
P97
Kickboxing
P67
P42
Clinch Striking
P51
P76
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P45
Wrestling
P88
P45
Pressure Wrestling
P71
P23
Top Control
P81
P25
Submission
P86
P21
Anti-Wrestling
P80
P55
Grappling Defense
P73
P4
Scrambler
P74
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P33
P49
Finisher
P48
P79
Damage Resistance
P92
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P49
Fast Starter
P93
P48
Pace
P86
P100
Late Fighter
P9
GLOBAL
P90
Versatility
P90
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VanPantoja
8.43Landed / min4.38
5.82Absorbed / min3.88
57%Accuracy50%
58%Defense50%
0.72KD / 150.28
0.10KD abs / 150.07
Grappling / Wrestling
VanPantoja
0.82TD / 152.79
1.34TD att / 155.87
62%TD accuracy48%
76%TD defense69%
1:06Control / 154:50
0.21Sub att / 150.98
Targets
VanPantoja
Head73%|63%
Body19%|21%
Leg8%|15%
Position
VanPantoja
Distance87%|81%
Clinch8%|10%
Ground5%|9%
Ranking evolution Van Pantoja
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Joshua Van
Joshua Van brings high output and forward pressure on the feet, backed by recent knockout power and a run of finishes. He rides a seven-fight win streak, has gone 5/5 in his last five UFC outings, and holds up well as the pace stretches late. His last win came against the No. 3-ranked opponent.
Alexandre Pantoja
Alexandre Pantoja's strength lives on the mat, where his top control is a real problem and has been sharpening recently. With a 30-9 overall mark and 14-4 in the UFC, his depth of experience is extensive, and he carries a 5 cm reach advantage over Van.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Van's volume, pressure and knockout power; the floor is where Pantoja's top game turns the fight. The central question is positional: if Van keeps it upright and busy, his output and late-round pace compound over five rounds. If Pantoja ties up and gets it down, his control, which has been trending upward, can stall Van's offense and drain the exchanges Van wants.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Pantoja can close distance and convert entries into sustained top control, or Van works back to his feet.
- Striking: Van's output and whether his power lands cleanly against the 5 cm reach of Pantoja.
- Late rounds: how both hold pace into the championship rounds as the fight piles up.