← UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09-19
57.9%
Model
83.5%
Market
1.15
Odds
-25.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P3
Striking Initiative
P20
P5
Volume
P30
P99
Striking Efficiency
P65
P99
Range Sniper
P89
P99
Kickboxing
P62
P76
Clinch Striking
P95
P36
Defensive Striking
P1
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P15
Wrestling
P0
P1
Pressure Wrestling
P3
P1
Top Control
P21
P0
Submission
P1
P0
Anti-Wrestling
P5
P2
Grappling Defense
P11
P28
Scrambler
P8
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P95
Power
P92
P86
Finisher
P94
P55
Damage Resistance
P21
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P85
Fast Starter
P13
P0
Pace
P2
P71
Late Fighter
P42
GLOBAL
P9
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DespaigneTuivasa
2.11Landed / min3.37
2.54Absorbed / min4.61
60%Accuracy49%
47%Defense43%
0.49KD / 150.82
0.00KD abs / 150.62
Grappling / Wrestling
DespaigneTuivasa
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.31
—TD accuracy0%
50%TD defense59%
0:10Control / 151:52
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
DespaigneTuivasa
Head64%|59%
Body6%|18%
Leg30%|23%
Position
DespaigneTuivasa
Distance81%|71%
Clinch16%|24%
Ground3%|5%
Ranking evolution Despaigne Tuivasa
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Robelis Despaigne
Despaigne brings a long, rangy heavyweight frame with a substantial reach and height advantage in this pairing. His striking output and work from top position have both been trending upward, and he projects to hold his pace deeper into a three-round fight. He carries a 6-2 record across all organizations.
Tai Tuivasa
Tuivasa's edge lies in his striking volume and forward pressure, and his résumé includes a win over a top-ranked opponent, giving him the more tested experience against quality competition. His all-organizations record sits at 14-10, though his last five UFC appearances have gone against him.
Matchup Read
The striking phase splits the fight: Tuivasa's pressure and volume want a short-range exchange, while Despaigne's 23 cm reach and 13 cm height let him fight long and keep the range to himself. If Despaigne manages the distance behind his jab and rising output, he dictates the geometry; if Tuivasa closes and forces close-quarters trades, his pace there becomes the problem. The crossed stances will shape the lead-hand battle.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Despaigne keeps the fight at the end of his reach or lets Tuivasa walk inside to the pocket.
- Pressure: how often Tuivasa cuts the cage and forces close-range volume versus eating jabs on entry.
- Late rounds: whether Despaigne's pace holds up across three rounds if the fight stays competitive.
Key Uncertainty
Despaigne's 23-month layoff is long enough to leave real questions about his sharpness and timing, making it harder to project how his recent upward trends carry over after so much time away.