← UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos Anjos
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10-03
51.9%
Model
69.4%
Market
1.39
Odds
-17.5
Edge (pp)
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
Style Matchup
established · 36 UFC fightsestablished · 36 fights
STRIKING
P51
Striking Initiative
P34
P69
Volume
P30
P20
Striking Efficiency
P40
P57
Range Sniper
P31
P34
Kickboxing
P44
P19
Clinch Striking
P95
P81
Defensive Striking
P80
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P38
Wrestling
P69
P50
Pressure Wrestling
P81
P51
Top Control
P62
P22
Submission
P69
P90
Anti-Wrestling
P22
P76
Grappling Defense
P35
P45
Scrambler
P77
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P62
Power
P15
P22
Finisher
P13
P66
Damage Resistance
P79
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P24
Fast Starter
P61
P45
Pace
P62
P58
Late Fighter
P50
GLOBAL
P42
Versatility
P78
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
HernandezAnjos
4.23Landed / min3.48
4.45Absorbed / min3.23
40%Accuracy47%
60%Defense60%
0.48KD / 150.20
0.16KD abs / 150.09
Grappling / Wrestling
HernandezAnjos
1.05TD / 151.95
2.98TD att / 155.47
35%TD accuracy36%
69%TD defense55%
1:56Control / 153:55
0.08Sub att / 150.57
Targets
HernandezAnjos
Head56%|58%
Body31%|24%
Leg13%|18%
Position
HernandezAnjos
Distance85%|67%
Clinch8%|18%
Ground7%|15%
Ranking evolution Hernandez Anjos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Alexander Hernandez
Hernandez brings the longer frame, a 5 cm reach advantage, and recent knockout power behind his hands. He's shown finishing momentum lately, his takedown defense has held up, and his ground control and defensive work have both been trending upward. Won 4 of his last 5 UFC fights.
Rafael Dos Anjos
Dos Anjos operates from southpaw and owns the better top game once the fight hits the mat, where his control tends to grind opponents down. Across all organizations he's 32-17, though he's taken 1 of his last 5 UFC fights and has been out for over 23 months.
Matchup Read
The pivot is Dos Anjos's push to get it down against Hernandez's takedown defense. If Hernandez keeps it standing, his reach and recent power favor him over three rounds in the orthodox-southpaw exchanges. If Dos Anjos lands his entries and establishes top position, his control game becomes the grind that decides it. Hernandez's rising ground control also matters if the fight turns into scrambles on the mat.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Hernandez uses his 5 cm reach to work at distance and keep Dos Anjos from closing into the clinch.
- Grappling: whether Dos Anjos can complete level changes, or Hernandez stuffs them and resets back to the feet.
- On the mat: if it goes down, who wins the scramble, Dos Anjos holding top or Hernandez working back up.
Key Uncertainty
Reading Dos Anjos is complicated by his layoff of more than 23 months, a genuinely long absence that leaves his current sharpness and timing harder to gauge coming in.