← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10-24
Jacob MalkounLow Data
67.2%
Model
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Market
—
Odds
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Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P75
Striking Initiative
P29
P45
Volume
P12
P79
Striking Efficiency
P3
P38
Range Sniper
P1
P38
Kickboxing
P11
P5
Clinch Striking
P75
P40
Defensive Striking
P57
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P97
Wrestling
P74
P99
Pressure Wrestling
P82
P99
Top Control
P88
P16
Submission
P7
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P22
P35
Grappling Defense
P44
P30
Scrambler
P32
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P27
Power
P6
P3
Finisher
P9
P54
Damage Resistance
P48
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P81
Fast Starter
P59
P99
Pace
P76
P17
Late Fighter
P65
GLOBAL
P95
Versatility
P26
Current fighter profiles · percentiles vs current established UFC fighters (8+ fights).
Striking
MalkounVagaev
4.23Landed / min1.80
2.33Absorbed / min2.20
57%Accuracy39%
55%Defense60%
0.15KD / 150.00
0.15KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
MalkounVagaev
5.39TD / 154.00
12.57TD att / 1510.00
43%TD accuracy40%
56%TD defense71%
7:06Control / 157:46
0.75Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MalkounVagaev
Head92%|59%
Body7%|26%
Leg1%|15%
Position
MalkounVagaev
Distance69%|67%
Clinch4%|26%
Ground27%|7%
Ranking evolution Malkoun Vagaev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jacob Malkoun
Jacob Malkoun's calling card is his wrestling: he changes levels well and gets the fight to the mat, and he's just as effective scrambling up from underneath when a bout is reversed on him. He adds a bit of extra output and forward pressure on the feet. Riding a three-fight win streak at 6-3 in the UFC.
Abubakar Vagaev
Abubakar Vagaev arrives with a deep 25-4 all-organizations record and a four-fight win streak after taking his UFC debut. His conditioning stands out, holding a strong pace deep into fights. His ground control has been trending upward recently. Stands 5 cm taller than Malkoun.
Matchup Read
Malkoun's push to put the fight on the mat runs straight into Vagaev's improving ground control, so the key question is whether Malkoun scores and keeps top position or gets stuck in a grinding exchange. His knack for returning to his feet matters if Vagaev reverses. If this stays competitive deep, Vagaev's cardio becomes the larger factor, giving Malkoun reason to be busy and finish positions early.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Malkoun converts his level changes into sustained top time or Vagaev neutralizes and controls on the mat.
- Scrambles: how quickly Malkoun gets back up when the position turns against him.
- Late rounds: whether the pace holds up for Malkoun as Vagaev's conditioning comes into play deeper in the fight.
Key Uncertainty
With only one UFC appearance to judge Vagaev by, how his ground control and cardio translate against this level of wrestling remains the hardest part of the matchup to read.