← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Losene Keita vs Aaron Pico
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10-24
53.9%
Model
50.2%
Market
1.92
Odds
+3.7
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P56
Striking Initiative
P94
P59
Volume
P86
P87
Striking Efficiency
P94
P91
Range Sniper
P54
P89
Kickboxing
P90
P17
Clinch Striking
P36
P83
Defensive Striking
P23
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P90
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P95
P31
Top Control
P88
P0
Submission
P9
P54
Anti-Wrestling
P54
P70
Grappling Defense
P52
P30
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P99
Power
P33
P48
Finisher
P53
P55
Damage Resistance
P33
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P68
Fast Starter
P74
P3
Pace
P100
P55
Late Fighter
P53
GLOBAL
P55
Versatility
P81
Current fighter profiles · percentiles vs current established UFC fighters (8+ fights).
Striking
KeitaPico
3.91Landed / min6.16
3.97Absorbed / min3.11
47%Accuracy54%
65%Defense45%
1.68KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.82
Grappling / Wrestling
KeitaPico
0.00TD / 156.54
0.00TD att / 1513.08
—TD accuracy50%
100%TD defense—
0:17Control / 154:26
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
KeitaPico
Head74%|76%
Body21%|14%
Leg4%|10%
Position
KeitaPico
Distance89%|86%
Clinch0%|8%
Ground11%|6%
Ranking evolution Keita Pico
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Losene Keita
Losene Keita comes in off a win and has shown durability lately, absorbing damage without folding. His recent form carries real finishing power and knockout momentum, and a 5 cm reach advantage gives him length to work behind. His cardio to hold pace deeper into the fight is another point in his favor, and his all-organizations mark sits at 17-2.
Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico's clearest tool is his ability to drag the fight to the mat, where he can dictate terms. He brings a bit more volume and forward pressure on the feet, and his last win came against a No. 11-ranked opponent, a quality result on his 14-5 overall record.
Matchup Read
Early, Keita's power and recent knockout form make the standing exchanges dangerous for anyone trading with him, and his reach lets him meet Pico's pressure at range. Pico's route runs through the mat: if he closes distance and changes levels, he takes away Keita's length and striking. Later, Keita's edge in holding pace and his durability matter more, raising the cost of Pico's takedown attempts stalling out as the fight wears on.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Keita can use his reach to keep Pico outside and land with power before the pressure arrives.
- Grappling: how often Pico changes levels, and whether his takedown attempts actually finish against the cage.
- Late rounds: whether Keita's pace holds up and Pico's takedown volume drops off as fatigue sets in.
Key Uncertainty
With both men only two fights into their UFC runs, there's a limited top-level sample to judge how their tools hold up against this caliber of opposition.