← UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Lerryan Douglas vs Julian Erosa
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03-28
Lerryan DouglasLow Data
vs Julian Erosa
53.6%
Model
70.6%
Market
1.36
Odds
-17.0
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P80
Volume
P81
Striking Efficiency
P83
Range Sniper
P79
Kickboxing
P73
Clinch Striking
P80
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P69
Pressure Wrestling
P69
Top Control
P51
Submission
P90
Anti-Wrestling
P24
Grappling Defense
P30
Scrambler
P8
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P25
Finisher
P88
Damage Resistance
P8
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P49
Pace
P71
Late Fighter
P56
GLOBAL
Versatility
P80
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DouglasErosa
—Landed / min6.10
—Absorbed / min6.18
—Accuracy48%
—Defense50%
—KD / 150.11
—KD abs / 150.87
Grappling / Wrestling
DouglasErosa
—TD / 151.86
—TD att / 154.15
—TD accuracy45%
—TD defense62%
—Control / 152:22
—Sub att / 150.76
Targets
DouglasErosa
Head—|66%
Body—|25%
Leg—|9%
Position
DouglasErosa
Distance—|77%
Clinch—|16%
Ground—|6%
Ranking evolution Douglas Erosa
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Lerryan Douglas
Lerryan Douglas arrives on a five-fight win streak with a 13-5 record across all organizations, though his recent results came against modest regional opposition. He makes his UFC debut here, an orthodox fighter stepping up in competition for the first time at this level.
Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa brings a deep 30-15 all-organizations record and a 9-8 UFC run, going 3 of his last 5 in the promotion. A southpaw with recent knockout power and finishing form, he's the more tested name against quality opposition, and carries a 5cm reach advantage.
Matchup Read
Erosa's recent finishing threat and knockout power make the opening exchanges the sharpest danger for Douglas, who must weather that early pressure and adjust to the southpaw angles across the distance Erosa's reach helps him control. If Douglas absorbs the early storm and drags this into the later minutes, his momentum from a longer active streak grows in relevance. The crossed stances complicate lead-hand and entry timing for both.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Douglas can close the reach gap and neutralize Erosa's power before it lands clean.
- Southpaw angles: how quickly Douglas solves the orthodox-vs-southpaw lead-hand and entry timing.
- Late rounds: whether Douglas's pace holds up if he takes Erosa past the early finishing window.
Key Uncertainty
With Douglas making his UFC debut and no promotional history to draw on, how his skills translate against this level of opposition is the main limit to reading the matchup.