← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
64.7%
Model
61.8%
Market
1.56
Odds
+3.0
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P1
Striking Initiative
P58
P1
Volume
P15
P31
Striking Efficiency
P79
P9
Range Sniper
P27
P47
Kickboxing
P65
P50
Clinch Striking
P36
P14
Defensive Striking
P47
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P95
Wrestling
P81
P87
Pressure Wrestling
P78
P99
Top Control
P96
P76
Submission
P20
P76
Anti-Wrestling
P49
P85
Grappling Defense
P92
P90
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P13
Power
P62
P51
Finisher
P51
P61
Damage Resistance
P13
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P99
Fast Starter
P58
P50
Pace
P73
P36
Late Fighter
P88
GLOBAL
P64
Versatility
P96
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
WalkerPetersen
2.00Landed / min3.06
2.85Absorbed / min2.62
52%Accuracy58%
43%Defense56%
0.00KD / 150.20
0.00KD abs / 150.61
Grappling / Wrestling
WalkerPetersen
5.74TD / 152.65
8.29TD att / 156.93
69%TD accuracy38%
—TD defense86%
8:24Control / 155:48
2.55Sub att / 150.20
Targets
WalkerPetersen
Head51%|64%
Body17%|27%
Leg32%|8%
Position
WalkerPetersen
Distance70%|75%
Clinch11%|7%
Ground19%|18%
Ranking evolution Walker Petersen
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Valter Walker
Valter Walker rides a 4-fight win streak and a 14-1 overall mark, going 4/5 in the UFC against mostly regional opposition. His recent run shows real finishing momentum, with a live submission threat on the mat and no recent stoppage loss on his record. He also owns a 10 cm reach advantage and stands 13 cm taller.
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen sits at 3-3 in the UFC and 12-4 across all organizations, winning his last outing. His most consistent assets are on the feet: sharper distance management and stand-up defense, backed by a sturdy chin that lets him absorb punishment and stay in exchanges.
Matchup Read
Petersen's striking defense and durability matter most early, where he can manage range against Walker's longer frame and weather what comes. Walker's path tilts the other way: his submission threat and finishing run make the grappling phase his territory, so dragging Petersen into mat exchanges serves him more than trading at distance. The orthodox-southpaw mix reshapes the angles for entries. Whoever dictates where the fight lives, standing or on the ground, controls the read.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Petersen uses his range control and defense to keep Walker at the end of punches and off the clinch.
- Grappling: whether Walker closes distance to the mat and gets into the submission attempts that fueled his recent run.
- Durability: how Petersen's chin holds up if Walker lands clean inside three rounds.