← UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10-17
Mandel NalloLow Data
50.0%
Model
70.9%
Market
1.36
Odds
-20.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P85
Striking Initiative
P75
P95
Volume
P81
P100
Striking Efficiency
P64
P100
Range Sniper
P76
P99
Kickboxing
P46
P55
Clinch Striking
P84
P33
Defensive Striking
P30
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P30
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P44
P10
Top Control
P41
P49
Submission
P47
P20
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P31
Grappling Defense
P83
P34
Scrambler
P48
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P44
P60
Finisher
P36
P30
Damage Resistance
P4
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P16
P20
Pace
P42
—
Late Fighter
P51
GLOBAL
P46
Versatility
P43
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NalloLandwehr
7.68Landed / min5.55
9.12Absorbed / min5.96
52%Accuracy46%
32%Defense51%
7.20KD / 150.15
14.40KD abs / 151.02
Grappling / Wrestling
NalloLandwehr
0.00TD / 150.73
0.00TD att / 151.75
—TD accuracy42%
—TD defense72%
1:12Control / 151:44
0.00Sub att / 150.73
Targets
NalloLandwehr
Head81%|73%
Body6%|14%
Leg13%|13%
Position
NalloLandwehr
Distance94%|76%
Clinch6%|19%
Ground0%|4%
Ranking evolution Nallo Landwehr
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo carries real finishing threat, especially on the ground, where his submission and control work can end fights outright. His striking volume and top control have both been trending upward lately. At 14-4 across all organizations, with an 8 cm reach advantage, he has length to work behind.
Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr brings sharper distance management and stand-up defense, plus a well-tested chin that has held up to damage recently. His 18-8 all-organizations record reflects deep experience, though he's gone 1 for 5 in his last five UFC appearances.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Landwehr's distance control and durability, which blunts Nallo's finishing push on the feet. The ground is where Nallo's danger lives: if he can close the distance and get this to the mat, his submission threat and top control become the fight's turning point. Landwehr's chin buys him time to weather early pressure and drag Nallo into exchanges where his stand-up defense pays off over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Nallo can close the reach gap, get Landwehr down and work his submission threat before the striking phase settles.
- Early striking: how well Landwehr manages range and defends on the feet against Nallo's rising volume.
- Durability: whether Landwehr's chin absorbs Nallo's finishing attempts and pulls the fight into the later rounds.
Key Uncertainty
With just a single UFC fight on Nallo's record, there's limited high-level tape to confirm how his finishing and trending output hold up against opposition of Landwehr's caliber.