← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Shem Rock
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
Abdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyLow Data
vs Shem Rock
53.4%
Model
53.2%
Market
1.81
Odds
+0.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P26
Striking Initiative
P46
P26
Volume
P60
P85
Striking Efficiency
P32
P61
Range Sniper
P15
P91
Kickboxing
P91
P53
Clinch Striking
P46
P54
Defensive Striking
P66
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P72
Wrestling
P43
P91
Pressure Wrestling
P71
P70
Top Control
P1
P15
Submission
P55
P28
Anti-Wrestling
P11
P20
Grappling Defense
P39
P35
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P24
Power
P4
P39
Finisher
P64
P29
Damage Resistance
P43
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P8
Fast Starter
P4
P54
Pace
P34
P16
Late Fighter
P44
GLOBAL
P52
Versatility
P29
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
Al-SelwadyRock
3.51Landed / min2.93
3.61Absorbed / min3.40
56%Accuracy42%
57%Defense56%
0.00KD / 150.00
1.39KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
Al-SelwadyRock
4.16TD / 151.00
9.71TD att / 159.00
43%TD accuracy11%
20%TD defense80%
3:47Control / 150:32
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
Al-SelwadyRock
Head39%|20%
Body21%|41%
Leg39%|39%
Position
Al-SelwadyRock
Distance89%|91%
Clinch11%|9%
Ground0%|0%
Ranking evolution Al-Selwady Rock
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Al-Selwady brings a strong top game, controlling and grinding once he gets the fight to the mat. His all-organizations record sits at 15-4, though his last result was a loss in his UFC debut. His path in this matchup runs through getting opponents down and working from the top.
Shem Rock
Shem Rock pairs a stout takedown defense with real finishing ability, the kind of fighter who can close the show before the scorecards. He carries a 10 cm reach and 8 cm height advantage, a slight edge in distance management and stand-up defense, and holds up well under fire. His record across all organizations is 12-2.
Matchup Read
Rock carries the early finishing danger, while Al-Selwady's grappling grows in value the longer the fight stays contested. The central tension is clear: Al-Selwady's top control meets Rock's ability to stuff takedowns and keep it standing. If Rock defends the entries and uses his length from southpaw, the striking plays to him. If Al-Selwady gets through and flattens him out, his control dictates. Who wins the first exchange, the shot or the sprawl, decides the pattern.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Rock uses his reach and length to keep Al-Selwady at the end of his punches.
- Grappling: whether Al-Selwady can complete entries or gets stuffed and forced back to striking range.
- Finishing windows: whether Rock can create a stoppage opportunity before the fight settles into control.
Key Uncertainty
Both men lost their only UFC appearance, giving a thin top-level sample, and Al-Selwady's read is complicated further by over two years out of competition since his last fight.