← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
Iwo BaraniewskiLow Data
vs Austen Lane
66.6%
Model
77.1%
Market
1.25
Odds
-10.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P63
Striking Initiative
P33
P55
Volume
P20
P91
Striking Efficiency
P60
P92
Range Sniper
P35
P12
Kickboxing
P76
P73
Clinch Striking
P21
P30
Defensive Striking
P16
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P35
Wrestling
P58
P91
Pressure Wrestling
P92
P53
Top Control
P92
P24
Submission
P8
P42
Anti-Wrestling
P31
P53
Grappling Defense
P23
P35
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P89
P67
Finisher
P81
P33
Damage Resistance
P11
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P26
P73
Pace
P77
—
Late Fighter
P36
GLOBAL
P40
Versatility
P46
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BaraniewskiLane
14.83Landed / min2.45
20.22Absorbed / min2.33
69%Accuracy53%
43%Defense36%
20.22KD / 150.45
10.11KD abs / 151.34
Grappling / Wrestling
BaraniewskiLane
0.00TD / 151.79
10.11TD att / 155.82
0%TD accuracy31%
100%TD defense50%
1:51Control / 156:25
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
BaraniewskiLane
Head82%|51%
Body14%|28%
Leg5%|21%
Position
BaraniewskiLane
Distance27%|84%
Clinch27%|1%
Ground45%|15%
Ranking evolution Baraniewski Lane
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Iwo Baraniewski
Baraniewski walks in unbeaten at 8-0 across all organizations, riding an eight-fight run and a winning UFC debut. His game is built on forward pressure and output, and he's shown the ability to close the show before the scorecards. He also defends takedowns well and keeps exchanges upright, on his terms.
Austen Lane
Lane is the longer, rangier fighter, working behind an 18cm reach advantage with sharper distance management and stand-up defense. His durability lets him eat shots and stay in fights, and once the action hits the mat his top control becomes a real factor. UFC results have been thin at 1-4.
Matchup Read
Baraniewski's pressure and finishing threat carry the early danger, forcing Lane to manage range and keep him off the inside with the reach. If Lane can't hold distance, Baraniewski's volume closes the gap and his stoppage ability comes into play. Should the fight go longer, Lane's chin, frame and top control gain value, and any moment he drags it down flips the exchange toward his ground game.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Lane can keep Baraniewski at the end of his reach or gets walked onto the inside where the volume lands.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, whether Lane establishes top control or Baraniewski works back to his feet.
- Late rounds: whether Lane's durability absorbs the early pressure and drags Baraniewski into deeper water.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC appearance on Baraniewski's record, there's limited high-level tape to gauge how his pressure and output hold up against a longer, more experienced opponent at this level.