← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
Mantas KondrataviciusLow Data
83.8%
Model
82.1%
Market
1.17
Odds
+1.7
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P0
Volume
P0
Striking Efficiency
P20
Range Sniper
P14
Kickboxing
P45
Clinch Striking
P64
Defensive Striking
P2
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P21
Pressure Wrestling
P82
Top Control
P80
Submission
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P32
Grappling Defense
P14
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P4
Finisher
P38
Damage Resistance
P28
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P11
Pace
P22
Late Fighter
P36
GLOBAL
Versatility
P9
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
KondrataviciusTrocoli
—Landed / min1.40
—Absorbed / min5.81
—Accuracy47%
—Defense24%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 151.00
Grappling / Wrestling
KondrataviciusTrocoli
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 159.01
—TD accuracy0%
—TD defense0%
—Control / 154:55
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
KondrataviciusTrocoli
Head—|48%
Body—|38%
Leg—|14%
Position
KondrataviciusTrocoli
Distance—|81%
Clinch—|19%
Ground—|0%
Ranking evolution Kondratavicius Trocoli
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mantas Kondratavicius
Kondratavicius rides a three-fight win streak to an 8-1 mark across all organizations, and his most consistent asset is the ability to close a fight before the judges get involved. He hasn't been finished in his recent bouts, so his exposure to a stoppage stays low heading in.
Antonio Trocoli
Trocoli carries a 13-6 all-organizations record and brings a real physical package for the division, with 13 cm of reach and 8 cm of height on his opponent. His most meaningful threat is finishing danger once the fight hits the mat.
Matchup Read
Standing, Kondratavicius carries the finishing danger and needs to close the 13 cm reach gap Trocoli uses to keep him at the end of strikes. On the ground the phase flips: Trocoli's submission threat becomes the central risk, so scrambling back up matters for Kondratavicius. Whoever dictates where the exchanges happen, in the pocket or on the mat, shapes the result.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Kondratavicius can work inside the reach and land the power that ends fights, or gets kept at range.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch whether Trocoli hunts a submission or Kondratavicius scrambles back to his feet.
- Track record: Trocoli sits 0-3 in the UFC, so watch whether he can finally convert his physical tools.
Key Uncertainty
Kondratavicius makes his UFC debut with no promotional history to read, so how his finishing ability holds up against this level of competition remains the main open question.