AIDonchenko's finishing threat and recent power make the early exchanges his territory, where a clean shot can…

87.9%

Model

80.0%

Market

1.20

Odds

+7.9

Edge (pp)

Daniil Donchenko

KO/TKO

87.9%12.1%

Theodor Berggren

DEFENSIVE STRIKER

DISTANCE KICKBOXER · POWER STRIKER · VOLUME PRESSURE STRIKER · PRECISION STRIKER

Striking Defense

provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights

Style Matchup

No UFC data yet

UFC debut · style profile after first fight

STRIKING

P97

Striking Initiative

P85

Volume

P96

Striking Efficiency

P84

Range Sniper

P93

Kickboxing

P44

Clinch Striking

P93

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P33

Wrestling

P12

Pressure Wrestling

P62

Top Control

P17

Submission

P38

Anti-Wrestling

P58

Grappling Defense

P33

Scrambler

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P92

Power

P58

Finisher

P48

Damage Resistance

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P88

Fast Starter

P79

Pace

P22

Late Fighter

GLOBAL

P74

Versatility

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

DonchenkoBerggren

7.15Landed / min—

2.57Absorbed / min—

60%Accuracy—

73%Defense—

1.54KD / 15—

0.00KD abs / 15—

Grappling / Wrestling

DonchenkoBerggren

0.77TD / 15—

2.31TD att / 15—

33%TD accuracy—

75%TD defense—

2:37Control / 15—

0.00Sub att / 15—

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Donchenko Berggren

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Daniil Donchenko

Daniil Donchenko comes in 2-0 in the UFC and 12-4 overall, riding a two-fight win streak. His recent run carries real finishing momentum and knockout power, and he's shown he can perform against a higher tier of opposition than his opponent has faced.

Theodor Berggren

Theodor Berggren makes his UFC debut at 8-3 across all organizations, also on a two-fight run. He's the longer man here by 10 cm of reach, and his switch-stance approach lets him attack from either side.

Matchup Read

Donchenko's finishing threat and recent power make the early exchanges his territory, where a clean shot can end things in three rounds. Berggren's 10 cm reach gives him the space to fight long and keep the taller frame between himself and that power. If he manages the distance behind his jab and the stance switches, he can stretch the fight; if Donchenko closes that gap, his knockout threat becomes the deciding factor.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Donchenko can close the reach gap and land clean, or Berggren keeps him at the end of his range.
Distance management: how well Berggren uses his length and stance switches to deny the inside pocket.
Late rounds: whether the fight reaches the third with Donchenko's finishing threat still looming or neutralized.

Key Uncertainty

Reading this cleanly is hard: Donchenko has only two UFC fights on record, and Berggren arrives on debut with no UFC history to measure against, leaving both ceilings against this level of competition unproven.

Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren