← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
64.4%
Model
47.9%
Market
2.01
Odds
+16.5
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P76
Striking Initiative
P89
P60
Volume
P91
P77
Striking Efficiency
P88
P44
Range Sniper
P97
P66
Kickboxing
P80
P63
Clinch Striking
P16
P49
Defensive Striking
P94
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P42
Wrestling
P5
P60
Pressure Wrestling
P42
P83
Top Control
P11
P65
Submission
P1
P47
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P70
Grappling Defense
P79
P29
Scrambler
P2
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P21
Power
P78
P78
Finisher
P24
P67
Damage Resistance
P72
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P12
Fast Starter
P48
P72
Pace
P22
P50
Late Fighter
P99
GLOBAL
P72
Versatility
P39
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PadillaHaqparast
4.78Landed / min6.36
3.87Absorbed / min6.00
54%Accuracy46%
56%Defense63%
0.00KD / 150.60
0.00KD abs / 150.17
Grappling / Wrestling
PadillaHaqparast
1.18TD / 150.34
3.92TD att / 151.70
30%TD accuracy20%
75%TD defense86%
3:17Control / 150:35
0.39Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PadillaHaqparast
Head52%|75%
Body14%|22%
Leg34%|4%
Position
PadillaHaqparast
Distance81%|90%
Clinch10%|6%
Ground9%|5%
Ranking evolution Padilla Haqparast
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla rides a 7-fight win streak and a perfect 4-0 UFC run, all four wins coming inside the distance. His recent form shows real finishing momentum and knockout power, backed by a durable chin and tightening defense. At 17-6 overall, he's been building against modest regional opposition. Orthodox, with a 5 cm reach advantage.
Nasrat Haqparast
Nasrat Haqparast, 10-5 in the UFC and 18-6 overall, has won four of his last five. His striking output has been trending upward, and his résumé carries meaningful time against a higher tier of competition than Padilla has faced. Fights southpaw.
Matchup Read
Standing, Haqparast's rising volume and tougher proven level meet Padilla's power and granite chin, so the striking becomes a question of whether output or single-shot danger dictates terms. The orthodox-southpaw mismatch shifts the lead-hand angles, and Padilla's 5 cm reach lets him contest the outside. Padilla hasn't eaten a recent stoppage, which matters if Haqparast's pace forces heavy exchanges across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Haqparast's higher output keeps Padilla from setting his feet to load up power shots.
- Open-stance angles: who wins the lead-hand battle and reach-controlled outside in the orthodox-vs-southpaw matchup.
- Late rounds: whether Padilla's finishing threat still carries into round three or Haqparast's volume takes over.