← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
53.2%
Model
43.0%
Market
2.24
Odds
+10.2
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P67
Striking Initiative
P10
P69
Volume
P8
P77
Striking Efficiency
P31
P80
Range Sniper
P23
P41
Kickboxing
P35
P81
Clinch Striking
P86
P28
Defensive Striking
P2
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P40
P17
Pressure Wrestling
P50
P48
Top Control
P98
P34
Submission
P25
P18
Anti-Wrestling
P50
P63
Grappling Defense
P88
P12
Scrambler
P29
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P70
Power
P72
P89
Finisher
P84
P46
Damage Resistance
P13
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P4
Fast Starter
P65
P44
Pace
P41
P75
Late Fighter
P5
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P34
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NzechukwuGaziev
5.07Landed / min3.01
4.86Absorbed / min5.16
50%Accuracy45%
52%Defense45%
0.38KD / 150.28
0.38KD abs / 150.83
Grappling / Wrestling
NzechukwuGaziev
0.63TD / 151.11
1.39TD att / 153.32
45%TD accuracy33%
82%TD defense83%
2:35Control / 156:12
0.25Sub att / 150.00
Targets
NzechukwuGaziev
Head82%|71%
Body18%|27%
Leg1%|2%
Position
NzechukwuGaziev
Distance77%|72%
Clinch13%|20%
Ground10%|9%
Ranking evolution Nzechukwu Gaziev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Nzechukwu brings the longer frame and a 13 cm reach advantage, built to work behind his jab from southpaw. His striking carries a bit more volume and pressure, and his durability and gas tank hold up well, with the ability to keep his pace deep into three rounds. He hasn't been stopped in his recent outings.
Shamil Gaziev
Gaziev's strength lives on the mat, where his top control and ability to pin and grind from top position are his most consistent threat. His all-organizations record sits at 14-3, built largely against lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Nzechukwu, whose reach, volume and sturdier late-round cardio reward a long fight at range. The floor flips it: if Gaziev closes distance and gets him down, his top pressure becomes the central problem. So the fight hinges on entries versus distance. Nzechukwu needs to keep it standing and tax Gaziev's gas tank over three rounds, where his pace edge grows the longer it stays upright.
What to Watch
- Entries vs distance: whether Gaziev can cross the 13 cm reach gap and get the fight to the mat.
- Ground time: if taken down, how quickly Nzechukwu works back up before Gaziev settles his top control.
- Late rounds: whether Nzechukwu's pace holds as the fight stretches into the third.
Key Uncertainty
Nzechukwu's 13.3-month layoff since his last fight is a longer-than-usual gap worth noting, though its actual effect on his timing and rhythm can't be assumed in advance.