← UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09-05
68.9%
Model
64.7%
Market
1.49
Odds
+4.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P15
Striking Initiative
P50
P23
Volume
P46
P47
Striking Efficiency
P81
P31
Range Sniper
P90
P71
Kickboxing
P88
P47
Clinch Striking
P29
P95
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P66
Wrestling
P70
P76
Pressure Wrestling
P42
P44
Top Control
P58
P52
Submission
P32
P13
Anti-Wrestling
P96
P71
Grappling Defense
P91
P31
Scrambler
P78
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P88
P13
Finisher
P66
P62
Damage Resistance
P29
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P23
Fast Starter
P49
P39
Pace
P44
P4
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P66
Versatility
P82
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LimaCharriere
2.86Landed / min4.02
2.91Absorbed / min4.51
45%Accuracy50%
65%Defense54%
0.00KD / 150.88
0.00KD abs / 150.59
Grappling / Wrestling
LimaCharriere
2.18TD / 152.06
8.00TD att / 154.41
27%TD accuracy47%
86%TD defense83%
2:41Control / 153:04
0.73Sub att / 150.29
Targets
LimaCharriere
Head59%|60%
Body23%|24%
Leg18%|16%
Position
LimaCharriere
Distance88%|89%
Clinch10%|6%
Ground2%|5%
Ranking evolution Lima Charriere
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Felipe Lima
Felipe Lima brings a 14-2 record across all organizations and a 2-1 UFC run, with his best win coming over the No. 28-ranked opponent. He's shown a durable chin recently and sharp distance control on the feet, and hasn't been stopped in his recent outings.
Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere is the more seasoned campaigner at 21-12 overall and 3-3 in the UFC. He carries steady output and forward pressure on the feet, a reliable gas tank deep into a fight, and strong get-up ability to scramble back to his feet when put on his back. He also owns a 5 cm height advantage.
Matchup Read
Early, Lima's durability and tighter range work give him a foothold on the feet against Charriere's volume and pressure. As the fight wears on, Charriere's cardio grows in value, letting him lean on output across three rounds. If Lima looks to control from top, Charriere's ability to work back up blunts that path and resets exchanges where his pace can tell late.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Lima's range control keeps Charriere's pressure and volume at bay, or Charriere closes the distance behind his height.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch how quickly Charriere scrambles back to his feet rather than staying controlled.
- Late rounds: whether Charriere's output climbs in the third as the pace stretches out.
Key Uncertainty
Lima has been out for over 14 months since his last fight, which leaves some question over how sharp he'll look early after that stretch of inactivity.