← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Kai Asakura vs Aoriqileng
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08-29
80.4%
Model
77.2%
Market
1.25
Odds
+3.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P32
Striking Initiative
P67
P64
Volume
P63
P5
Striking Efficiency
P94
P46
Range Sniper
P91
P25
Kickboxing
P91
P21
Clinch Striking
P16
P50
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P15
Wrestling
P52
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P43
P1
Top Control
P22
P18
Submission
P15
P10
Anti-Wrestling
P1
P12
Grappling Defense
P5
P29
Scrambler
P20
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P50
P66
Finisher
P7
P54
Damage Resistance
P22
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P27
Fast Starter
P77
P2
Pace
P26
—
Late Fighter
P89
GLOBAL
P3
Versatility
P28
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AsakuraAoriqileng
2.53Landed / min4.31
3.34Absorbed / min5.28
34%Accuracy50%
52%Defense48%
0.81KD / 150.52
0.00KD abs / 150.69
Grappling / Wrestling
AsakuraAoriqileng
0.00TD / 151.22
0.00TD att / 152.60
—TD accuracy47%
50%TD defense60%
0:23Control / 151:50
0.00Sub att / 150.17
Targets
AsakuraAoriqileng
Head70%|66%
Body21%|24%
Leg9%|10%
Position
AsakuraAoriqileng
Distance98%|82%
Clinch0%|6%
Ground2%|12%
Ranking evolution Asakura Aoriqileng
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kai Asakura
Kai Asakura brings sharp distance control and a stand-up defense that keeps him clean at range, paired with real finishing power that can end things before the judges weigh in. His striking volume has been climbing of late, his chin has held up through recent exchanges, and his 22-6 overall mark includes tested outings against higher-level opposition.
Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng is a veteran campaigner at 27-13 across all organizations, with nine UFC bouts behind him and recent work against lower-ranked opposition. He most recently fought three months back, matching Asakura's quick turnaround into this one.
Matchup Read
The central collision is Asakura's distance management and striking defense meeting Aoriqileng's attempts to close and trade. If Asakura controls range over three rounds, his finishing threat and durability let him dictate the standing exchanges and absorb return fire. Aoriqileng's clearest route is to break that rhythm and drag the fight into messier phases where Asakura's spacing matters less. Whoever sets the terms at distance shapes the night.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Asakura keeps the fight at his preferred range or Aoriqileng closes the gap to trade.
- Finishing windows: if Asakura hurts him, watch how Aoriqileng weathers the follow-up pressure.
- Late rounds: whether Aoriqileng can force clinch or scramble phases to disrupt Asakura's spacing across three rounds.