← UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Youssef Zalal vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04-25
55.1%
Model
55.4%
Market
1.74
Odds
-0.3
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P28
Striking Initiative
P76
P25
Volume
P60
P74
Striking Efficiency
P67
P49
Range Sniper
P23
P84
Kickboxing
P55
P14
Clinch Striking
P77
P97
Defensive Striking
P77
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P72
Wrestling
P78
P93
Pressure Wrestling
P85
P76
Top Control
P75
P93
Submission
P65
P80
Anti-Wrestling
P64
P35
Grappling Defense
P33
P95
Scrambler
P88
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P27
Power
P2
P77
Finisher
P7
P85
Damage Resistance
P40
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P98
Fast Starter
P67
P70
Pace
P95
P45
Late Fighter
P76
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P91
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ZalalSterling
2.89Landed / min4.45
1.78Absorbed / min2.21
53%Accuracy53%
67%Defense60%
0.24KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.25
Grappling / Wrestling
ZalalSterling
2.31TD / 152.45
7.54TD att / 158.00
31%TD accuracy31%
56%TD defense45%
4:41Control / 154:42
1.46Sub att / 150.64
Targets
ZalalSterling
Head62%|50%
Body16%|32%
Leg22%|19%
Position
ZalalSterling
Distance88%|67%
Clinch6%|14%
Ground6%|18%
Ranking evolution Zalal Sterling
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Youssef Zalal
Zalal arrives on an eight-fight win streak, with 5 of his last 5 UFC appearances in the win column and a recent victory over the No. 13-ranked opponent. His offense carries real finishing threat, his striking output has been climbing, and he mixes in takedowns of his own while showing a knack for scrambling back to his feet from the bottom. At 18-5 overall, his recent form has held steady.
Aljamain Sterling
Sterling brings a deep 25-5 record and 17 UFC wins, with a recent victory over the No. 7-ranked opponent and a loss to the No. 4. His measured volume and forward pressure on the feet are his edge in the striking exchanges here, and his résumé against elite competition is the most tested in this pairing.
Matchup Read
Sterling owns the tested track record, but Zalal holds the sharper matchup-specific tools. The striking is where Sterling's pressure and volume press the issue, so Zalal's rising output and finishing threat matter most in those exchanges. On the mat, Zalal's own takedowns plus his ability to climb back to his feet complicate any grinding game. With an 8 cm height edge, Zalal can work longer when he keeps range and dictates where the fight happens.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Sterling's forward pressure corners Zalal or Zalal uses his height and reach to keep the exchanges at distance.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch how quickly Zalal scrambles back up rather than staying pinned on the bottom.
- Finishing windows: whether Zalal can turn a clean exchange into a stoppage before the scorecards come into play.