← UFC Freedom 250
Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06-14
53.4%
Model
50.1%
Market
1.92
Odds
+3.3
Edge (pp)
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
Style Matchup
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P98
P92
Volume
P90
P99
Striking Efficiency
P100
P85
Range Sniper
P98
P100
Kickboxing
P98
P33
Clinch Striking
P63
P97
Defensive Striking
P58
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P18
Wrestling
P21
P29
Pressure Wrestling
P7
P37
Top Control
P3
P53
Submission
P20
P41
Anti-Wrestling
P8
P18
Grappling Defense
P48
P4
Scrambler
P3
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P46
Power
P94
P47
Finisher
P91
P83
Damage Resistance
P75
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P51
Fast Starter
P94
P56
Pace
P12
P82
Late Fighter
P88
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P59
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GanePereira
5.26Landed / min5.16
2.23Absorbed / min3.50
61%Accuracy62%
62%Defense54%
0.26KD / 150.79
0.09KD abs / 150.11
Grappling / Wrestling
GanePereira
0.70TD / 150.11
2.81TD att / 150.23
25%TD accuracy50%
44%TD defense79%
1:25Control / 150:18
0.61Sub att / 150.23
Targets
GanePereira
Head43%|47%
Body28%|26%
Leg29%|27%
Position
GanePereira
Distance90%|81%
Clinch7%|11%
Ground3%|9%
Ranking evolution Gane Pereira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ciryl Gane
Gane works behind a long frame and a 5 cm reach advantage, using footwork and distance to manage range while keeping a tight stand-up defense. His chin holds up well under fire. He last beat the No. 3-ranked opponent and comes in on a two-fight run.
Alex Pereira
Pereira brings heavy recent knockout power and a run of finishes, backed by a win over the No. 1-ranked opponent. He's hard to put on the mat and keeps fights standing, and his top control has been trending upward lately. He's 4/5 in his last five.
Matchup Read
Gane carries the quality résumé and the five-round pedigree, but Pereira owns the sharper finishing tools for this matchup. With Pereira's takedown defense keeping things upright, the fight likely lives on the feet, where Gane's reach and distance management meet Pereira's power. Gane's job is to stay long and avoid trading in the pocket; every clean exchange raises Pereira's finishing threat across a scheduled five.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Gane fights off his jab and keeps Pereira at the end of his reach or gets drawn into pocket exchanges.
- Takedown attempts: if Gane shoots to change levels, watch how Pereira defends and keeps it standing.
- Late rounds: whether Gane sustains his movement into rounds four and five or starts eating Pereira's power as the pace settles.
Key Uncertainty
Gane's 18.2-month layoff is the main limit on reading this one, since it leaves open how sharp his timing and output will be after such a long stretch out of competition.