← UFC Freedom 250
Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06-14
82.6%
Model
82.8%
Market
1.16
Odds
-0.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P50
Striking Initiative
P46
P41
Volume
P46
P98
Striking Efficiency
P80
P100
Range Sniper
P76
P87
Kickboxing
P62
P21
Clinch Striking
P7
P80
Defensive Striking
P0
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P7
Wrestling
P63
P2
Pressure Wrestling
P38
P6
Top Control
P36
P1
Submission
P45
P23
Anti-Wrestling
P22
P58
Grappling Defense
P17
P22
Scrambler
P74
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P62
P93
Finisher
P60
P72
Damage Resistance
P23
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P35
Fast Starter
P86
P1
Pace
P52
P48
Late Fighter
P0
GLOBAL
P31
Versatility
P25
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RuffyChandler
3.97Landed / min4.03
4.10Absorbed / min4.78
58%Accuracy51%
59%Defense40%
1.53KD / 150.38
0.00KD abs / 150.58
Grappling / Wrestling
RuffyChandler
0.00TD / 151.73
0.38TD att / 154.22
0%TD accuracy41%
82%TD defense56%
0:39Control / 152:59
0.00Sub att / 150.19
Targets
RuffyChandler
Head81%|67%
Body7%|23%
Leg12%|10%
Position
RuffyChandler
Distance83%|74%
Clinch3%|2%
Ground13%|24%
Ranking evolution Ruffy Chandler
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mauricio Ruffy
Mauricio Ruffy brings genuine finishing power, able to close out fights before the judges get involved, and his finishing production has been climbing across recent outings. His striking volume and ground control have both been trending upward, and he holds up well deep into fights, maintaining pace over the distance. He owns a 10 cm reach advantage and beat the No. 12-ranked opponent in his last win.
Michael Chandler
Michael Chandler carries a deep résumé across all organizations at 23-10, with a recent win over the No. 8-ranked opponent to his name. His most recent loss came against the No. 17-ranked opponent. He has been out of action for just over 14 months.
Matchup Read
Ruffy's length and rising striking volume give him room to work on the outside, where his finishing threat lives. Chandler's road runs through closing that distance and getting Ruffy into exchanges before the fight stretches out. The longer this goes, the more Ruffy's cardio and ability to hold pace over three rounds come into play. Chandler needs his work done early; Ruffy's profile points toward the later minutes.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Chandler can crash Ruffy's 10 cm reach and force close-range exchanges, or gets kept at the end of punches.
- Late rounds: Ruffy's pace in round three, and whether Chandler's output holds after the opening exchanges.
- Finishing: any moment where Ruffy's power threatens a stoppage versus Chandler weathering it to the scorecards.
Key Uncertainty
Chandler enters on a layoff of just over 14 months, long enough to leave his current sharpness and timing an open question heading into this one.