← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
Yaroslav AmosovLow Data
vs Joel Alvarez
65.0%
Model
61.9%
Market
1.56
Odds
+3.1
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P19
Striking Initiative
P96
P23
Volume
P83
P30
Striking Efficiency
P96
P11
Range Sniper
P74
P68
Kickboxing
P83
P51
Clinch Striking
P71
P47
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P64
Wrestling
P10
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P20
P100
Top Control
P30
P99
Submission
P100
P37
Anti-Wrestling
P48
P50
Grappling Defense
P9
P36
Scrambler
P50
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P10
Power
P20
P49
Finisher
P96
P39
Damage Resistance
P71
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P62
Fast Starter
P53
P91
Pace
P38
—
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P41
Versatility
P77
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AmosovAlvarez
2.78Landed / min4.78
1.55Absorbed / min3.07
47%Accuracy55%
55%Defense54%
0.00KD / 150.19
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AmosovAlvarez
4.64TD / 150.19
9.28TD att / 150.57
50%TD accuracy33%
—TD defense47%
8:58Control / 151:45
4.64Sub att / 151.15
Targets
AmosovAlvarez
Head33%|69%
Body0%|20%
Leg67%|11%
Position
AmosovAlvarez
Distance89%|74%
Clinch0%|12%
Ground11%|14%
Ranking evolution Amosov Alvarez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Yaroslav Amosov
Amosov brings a stellar 29-1 record across all organizations and won his UFC debut. His strongest tool is top game and control once the fight hits the mat, and he carries real finishing momentum over his recent outings. He's also tested against quality, with a win over the No. 20-ranked opponent.
Joel Alvarez
Alvarez rides a four-fight win streak and sits at 8-2 in the UFC, 4 of his last 5. His finishing threat off the ground is dangerous, and his striking output and dominance have both been trending upward. At 5 cm longer reach, he owns the length advantage here.
Matchup Read
Amosov's push to control from top meets Alvarez's finishing threat on the ground, and that collision defines the fight. Taking Alvarez down is the obvious route to neutralize his rising striking, but working from top against a live submission threat carries real risk. If Amosov controls cleanly he grinds out rounds; if he gets careless in transitions, Alvarez can lock something up. Standing, Alvarez's length and climbing volume favor him.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Amosov can pass and hold position, or whether Alvarez threatens submissions off his back in the scrambles.
- Early striking: can Alvarez use his reach to keep it at range and build the volume he's been trending toward.
- Transitions: how cleanly Amosov enters and exits top position without exposing his neck or limbs.
Key Uncertainty
With just one UFC fight on Amosov's record, there's limited top-level sample to confirm how his control game holds up against this caliber of opposition over three rounds.