← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
73.4%
Model
60.8%
Market
1.58
Odds
+12.6
Edge (pp)
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
Style Matchup
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
STRIKING
P69
Striking Initiative
P91
P38
Volume
P85
P68
Striking Efficiency
P93
P37
Range Sniper
P76
P33
Kickboxing
P87
P94
Clinch Striking
P28
P0
Defensive Striking
P3
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P92
Wrestling
P20
P94
Pressure Wrestling
P54
P92
Top Control
P51
P97
Submission
P94
P77
Anti-Wrestling
P21
P64
Grappling Defense
P4
P85
Scrambler
P60
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P75
Power
P37
P100
Finisher
P65
P70
Damage Resistance
P61
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P96
Fast Starter
P74
P99
Pace
P83
P35
Late Fighter
P21
GLOBAL
P74
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DenisPimblett
5.62Landed / min5.49
4.09Absorbed / min3.89
59%Accuracy53%
42%Defense43%
0.87KD / 150.34
0.17KD abs / 150.34
Grappling / Wrestling
DenisPimblett
4.19TD / 150.69
11.70TD att / 153.26
36%TD accuracy21%
72%TD defense44%
7:08Control / 153:02
1.75Sub att / 151.20
Targets
DenisPimblett
Head63%|62%
Body27%|18%
Leg11%|20%
Position
DenisPimblett
Distance51%|76%
Clinch18%|8%
Ground31%|17%
Ranking evolution Denis Pimblett
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Benoit Saint Denis
Benoit Saint Denis rides a four-fight win streak, with 17-3 overall and a 9-3 UFC mark. His strongest tools are getting the fight down and grinding from top position, and he's shown recent knockout power and finishing momentum. His striking output and defensive work have both been trending upward, and his cardio holds up deep.
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett carries a 23-4 record across all organizations and a 7-1 UFC run, going 4 for his last 5. His most recent win came against the No. 13-ranked opponent, while his lone recent loss came to the No. 5-ranked fighter.
Matchup Read
On the mat the fight tilts toward Saint Denis, whose level changes and top control are his most consistent advantages and the clearest route to dominating rounds. Pimblett needs to keep this upright and avoid the grind against the fence. Saint Denis's recent power and improving output add danger in exchanges, and over three rounds his cardio becomes relevant if the pace climbs. The southpaw-orthodox look reshapes the angles both men work from.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Saint Denis can change levels cleanly and pin Pimblett down, or gets stuffed and kept standing.
- Early striking: how the crossed-stance angles play out and whether Saint Denis's power lands in exchanges.
- Late rounds: whether the pace rises into the third and tests who holds up better over the distance.