← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Mario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
56.7%
Model
42.4%
Market
2.27
Odds
+14.3
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
STRIKING
P90
Striking Initiative
P87
P85
Volume
P84
P82
Striking Efficiency
P68
P62
Range Sniper
P53
P82
Kickboxing
P76
P64
Clinch Striking
P0
P50
Defensive Striking
P67
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P68
Wrestling
P42
P73
Pressure Wrestling
P43
P60
Top Control
P56
P79
Submission
P38
P48
Anti-Wrestling
P68
P37
Grappling Defense
P42
P52
Scrambler
P62
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P18
Power
P48
P40
Finisher
P35
P73
Damage Resistance
P97
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P97
Fast Starter
P73
P90
Pace
P83
P95
Late Fighter
P28
GLOBAL
P87
Versatility
P67
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BautistaSandhagen
5.30Landed / min4.86
3.98Absorbed / min3.47
49%Accuracy45%
55%Defense57%
0.21KD / 150.25
0.21KD abs / 150.06
Grappling / Wrestling
BautistaSandhagen
1.91TD / 151.15
4.99TD att / 153.31
38%TD accuracy35%
56%TD defense56%
3:27Control / 153:01
0.85Sub att / 150.25
Targets
BautistaSandhagen
Head61%|65%
Body27%|16%
Leg12%|20%
Position
BautistaSandhagen
Distance82%|83%
Clinch13%|3%
Ground6%|14%
Ranking evolution Bautista Sandhagen
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista comes in on a one-fight win streak with a UFC record of 11-3 and 4 wins in his last 5. His recent run carries real finishing momentum, with a live submission threat the most meaningful part of that stretch. His output has been climbing, and he's shown the cardio to hold a steady pace deep into fights.
Cory Sandhagen
Cory Sandhagen holds an 11-5 UFC record and 18-6 overall, with his last win coming against the No. 8-ranked opponent and his last loss to the No. 1-ranked opponent. He owns a 5 cm height advantage and has been out for a little over 9 months.
Matchup Read
Sandhagen's résumé against the top of the division sets the bar here, but Bautista brings the sharper matchup-specific tools. The central question is whether Bautista can bring his submission threat into play against a taller man who can use that length to work from range. If exchanges stay at distance over three rounds, Bautista's rising volume and ability to sustain pace late become his route. His grappling is where the finishing danger lives.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Bautista can close distance and turn scrambles into submission attempts against Sandhagen's length.
- Early striking: whether Sandhagen uses his 5 cm height to keep exchanges at range and deny clinch entries.
- Late rounds: whether Bautista's pace holds and his output keeps climbing as the third round approaches.