← UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08-15
54.9%
Model
27.2%
Market
3.53
Odds
+27.7
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
STRIKING
P94
Striking Initiative
P31
P92
Volume
P6
P97
Striking Efficiency
P42
P88
Range Sniper
P10
P99
Kickboxing
P18
P13
Clinch Striking
P93
P54
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P93
P42
Pressure Wrestling
P85
P26
Top Control
P98
P23
Submission
P90
P14
Anti-Wrestling
P100
P82
Grappling Defense
P99
P9
Scrambler
P95
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P66
Power
P40
P7
Finisher
P45
P85
Damage Resistance
P53
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P62
Fast Starter
P100
P60
Pace
P76
P97
Late Fighter
P43
GLOBAL
P76
Versatility
P98
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GarryMakhachev
4.78Landed / min2.45
2.86Absorbed / min1.45
54%Accuracy58%
53%Defense62%
0.37KD / 150.30
0.09KD abs / 150.15
Grappling / Wrestling
GarryMakhachev
0.92TD / 153.10
2.96TD att / 155.52
31%TD accuracy56%
80%TD defense91%
1:44Control / 157:41
0.37Sub att / 150.98
Targets
GarryMakhachev
Head56%|71%
Body19%|24%
Leg25%|6%
Position
GarryMakhachev
Distance91%|57%
Clinch5%|18%
Ground4%|24%
Ranking evolution Garry Makhachev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry brings a long, rangy welterweight frame, standing 13 cm taller with a 10 cm reach advantage he can use to fight at distance. His striking carries a slight edge in volume and pressure, and his output has been trending toward more dominant exchanges lately. He's 10-1 in the UFC, riding a two-fight streak that includes a win over the No. 2-ranked opponent.
Islam Makhachev
Islam Makhachev owns the grappling in every meaningful way here: strong top control once the fight hits the mat, a serious finishing threat from top position, and recent submission danger to back it up. He's on a 16-fight win streak, 17-1 in the UFC with 5/5 in his last five, and last beat the No. 1-ranked opponent. His striking volume has been rising too.
Matchup Read
The early rounds favor Garry's length and striking volume if he can keep this at range and force Makhachev to work from the outside. The longer it stays on the mat, the more Makhachev's top control and submission threat take over. The orthodox-southpaw matchup shifts the angles on entries, and Garry's reach is only an asset while he denies the level change. Over five rounds, the central question is whether distance management holds or the fight gets grounded.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Garry uses his reach and height to keep Makhachev pinned to the outside and pile up volume.
- Grappling: how quickly Makhachev closes distance to change levels, and whether he can hold top position once there.
- Late rounds: with five rounds scheduled, watch whether Garry's distance control survives repeated entries into rounds four and five.