← UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08-15
70.7%
Model
80.3%
Market
1.20
Odds
-9.6
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P18
Striking Initiative
P18
P7
Volume
P8
P25
Striking Efficiency
P8
P18
Range Sniper
P4
P11
Kickboxing
P1
P21
Clinch Striking
P13
P18
Defensive Striking
P19
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P100
Wrestling
P87
P99
Pressure Wrestling
P74
P98
Top Control
P95
P67
Submission
P61
P73
Anti-Wrestling
P27
P23
Grappling Defense
P19
P89
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P79
Power
P67
P77
Finisher
P42
P55
Damage Resistance
P32
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P87
Fast Starter
P89
P86
Pace
P91
P13
Late Fighter
P13
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P17
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OrolbaiWells
2.78Landed / min2.35
2.70Absorbed / min1.28
50%Accuracy46%
51%Defense48%
0.49KD / 150.44
0.24KD abs / 150.44
Grappling / Wrestling
OrolbaiWells
8.77TD / 153.06
14.87TD att / 156.57
59%TD accuracy47%
40%TD defense50%
8:02Control / 157:58
0.49Sub att / 151.31
Targets
OrolbaiWells
Head75%|83%
Body13%|15%
Leg12%|2%
Position
OrolbaiWells
Distance67%|53%
Clinch4%|3%
Ground30%|44%
Ranking evolution Orolbai Wells
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Myktybek Orolbai
Orolbai arrives on a three-fight win streak with a 16-2 overall mark and a 4/5 run in his last five UFC appearances. His ground control has been trending upward lately, and recent fights show both finishing momentum and knockout power. He's also been tested against stiffer competition.
Jeremiah Wells
Wells carries a 13-4 record and a 5-2 UFC run, winning 3 of his last 5. His relative strengths in this pairing sit in his distance management and stand-up defense, a durable chin that helps him absorb damage, and his own ability to drag the fight to the mat.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Orolbai's recent power and finishing, while Wells' sharper range control and ability to soak up shots are built to blunt that. On the mat the picture crosses: Wells can look to take it down, but Orolbai's rising top game and grappling pressure make that a contested exchange rather than a safe harbor. Whoever dictates whether this plays out at range or in the grappling decides it.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Wells can hold the range and keep Orolbai from loading up his power shots.
- Grappling: if Wells shoots, watch whether Orolbai reverses position and establishes top control.
- Late rounds: whether Wells' durability lets him weather Orolbai's output and carry a measured pace across three rounds.