← UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09-19
55.4%
Model
68.2%
Market
1.41
Odds
-12.8
Edge (pp)
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
Style Matchup
established · 26 UFC fightsestablished · 26 fights
STRIKING
P94
Striking Initiative
P40
P90
Volume
P58
P85
Striking Efficiency
P69
P82
Range Sniper
P90
P84
Kickboxing
P74
P96
Clinch Striking
P44
P65
Defensive Striking
P22
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P7
Wrestling
P15
P32
Pressure Wrestling
P16
P29
Top Control
P18
P77
Submission
P84
P42
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P10
Grappling Defense
P65
P40
Scrambler
P38
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P66
Power
P53
P85
Finisher
P63
P75
Damage Resistance
P100
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P78
Fast Starter
P5
P54
Pace
P10
P96
Late Fighter
P99
GLOBAL
P50
Versatility
P56
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
JourdainVera
5.56Landed / min4.18
4.20Absorbed / min5.34
50%Accuracy48%
56%Defense50%
0.58KD / 150.55
0.25KD abs / 150.04
Grappling / Wrestling
JourdainVera
0.41TD / 150.47
1.91TD att / 151.19
22%TD accuracy39%
41%TD defense72%
1:39Control / 151:18
0.41Sub att / 150.76
Targets
JourdainVera
Head54%|54%
Body29%|22%
Leg17%|24%
Position
JourdainVera
Distance74%|80%
Clinch19%|10%
Ground7%|10%
Ranking evolution Jourdain Vera
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain comes in on a 3-fight win streak with his most recent victory over the No. 25-ranked opponent. His defensive work has sharpened lately, and he carries real finishing momentum, with his submission threat an active part of that recent run. On the feet, his output and forward pressure give him a modest working advantage.
Marlon Vera
Marlon Vera owns the stronger grappling control in this matchup, both in getting the fight to the mat and in keeping it standing when he wants it there. His last win came against the No. 10-ranked opponent, and his striking volume has been trending upward recently.
Matchup Read
Standing, Jourdain's volume and pressure give him something to build on across three rounds. The grappling tilts the other way: Vera can dictate where this plays out, taking it down or stuffing Jourdain's own entries to keep it where he prefers. That matters because Jourdain's recent danger runs through his submission game, and getting there against a grappler who controls the takedown battle is the central problem he has to solve.
What to Watch
- Grappling battle: whether Vera chooses to drag it down or sprawl and keep Jourdain off his takedown and submission attempts.
- Striking exchanges: whether Jourdain's forward pressure and output keep Vera on the back foot through three rounds.
- Scramble threat: whether Jourdain can find the sub attempts that fueled his recent run, or Vera shuts the scrambles down.