← UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09-19
75.6%
Model
81.7%
Market
1.18
Odds
-6.1
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P75
P93
Volume
P76
P79
Striking Efficiency
P98
P86
Range Sniper
P91
P27
Kickboxing
P95
P39
Clinch Striking
P21
P53
Defensive Striking
P83
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P11
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P2
P48
Top Control
P35
P17
Submission
P21
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P60
Grappling Defense
P54
P33
Scrambler
P29
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P99
Power
P29
P63
Finisher
P74
P42
Damage Resistance
P18
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P70
Fast Starter
P7
P50
Pace
P15
—
Late Fighter
P47
GLOBAL
P38
Versatility
P56
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GandraDiaz
12.41Landed / min6.36
2.59Absorbed / min7.25
49%Accuracy51%
62%Defense63%
15.52KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 151.27
Grappling / Wrestling
GandraDiaz
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 151.91
—TD accuracy0%
—TD defense67%
0:39Control / 150:40
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GandraDiaz
Head92%|85%
Body8%|10%
Leg0%|5%
Position
GandraDiaz
Distance75%|97%
Clinch0%|3%
Ground25%|0%
Ranking evolution Gandra Diaz
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra rides a nine-fight win streak and a 2-0 UFC start within a 10-1 overall mark. His striking carries real volume and pressure, backed by sharp distance management and stand-up defense. He absorbs damage well, and his recent work has come with knockout power and finishes.
Ozzy Diaz
Ozzy Diaz sits at 1-2 in the UFC, 10-4 across all promotions, with one win in his last 3 UFC fights. His most concrete asset here is a physical one: he's the longer, taller man, carrying 13 cm of reach and standing 8 cm higher.
Matchup Read
Gandra's forward pressure and volume meet Diaz's length, and how that plays out likely decides the fight. Diaz's 13 cm reach advantage gives him room to work at distance, but Gandra's distance management and defense are built to close that gap and get inside. If Gandra walks him down and empties combinations, his durability lets him wear the exchanges. Diaz needs to keep Gandra at the end of his range across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Diaz can pin Gandra on the end of his jab or Gandra slips inside the reach to open up.
- Pressure: how well Gandra cuts the cage and forces exchanges rather than chasing at range.
- Late rounds: whether Diaz's length still keeps distance in round three as Gandra's volume accumulates.
Key Uncertainty
Gandra has only two UFC fights on record, so how his pressure-heavy striking holds up against this level of competition over three rounds remains partly untested.