← UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03-28
57.2%
Model
59.8%
Market
1.61
Odds
-2.6
Edge (pp)
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P76
Striking Initiative
P36
P52
Volume
P51
P49
Striking Efficiency
P72
P41
Range Sniper
P72
P2
Kickboxing
P89
P69
Clinch Striking
P46
P3
Defensive Striking
P52
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P85
Wrestling
P20
P95
Pressure Wrestling
P63
P92
Top Control
P42
P99
Submission
P49
P87
Anti-Wrestling
P9
P71
Grappling Defense
P28
P93
Scrambler
P19
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P32
P98
Finisher
P22
P7
Damage Resistance
P52
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P95
Fast Starter
P30
P100
Pace
P40
—
Late Fighter
P13
GLOBAL
P64
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
McKinneyNelson
7.43Landed / min3.95
4.13Absorbed / min4.65
56%Accuracy47%
42%Defense55%
1.55KD / 150.15
2.06KD abs / 150.15
Grappling / Wrestling
McKinneyNelson
3.10TD / 150.60
7.22TD att / 154.38
43%TD accuracy14%
73%TD defense67%
6:47Control / 152:43
2.58Sub att / 150.60
Targets
McKinneyNelson
Head87%|56%
Body13%|26%
Leg0%|18%
Position
McKinneyNelson
Distance45%|84%
Clinch14%|13%
Ground41%|3%
Ranking evolution McKinney Nelson
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney brings a high-output striking attack with real finishing power, and his output has been climbing lately. He backs it up with strong takedown entries and heavy top control once the fight hits the mat. A 17-8 overall mark and a 5cm reach advantage round out his tools here.
Kyle Nelson
Kyle Nelson enters on a win and has taken 4 of his last 5 UFC fights, sitting at 17-6 across all organizations. His durability has held up well through recent exchanges, and his work controlling opponents on the ground has been trending upward.
Matchup Read
Nelson owns the tested recent form, but McKinney holds the sharper matchup-specific tools: his volume, takedown entries, top control and finishing threat all point to him dictating where the fight goes. Nelson's recent chin durability matters most against that finishing pressure, since absorbing the early storm buys him time. If he weathers it and his own ground control holds up in scrambles, the fight can shift into deeper waters.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether McKinney's volume and finishing pressure overwhelm Nelson, or Nelson's chin lets him ride it out.
- Grappling: whether McKinney's takedown entries land and stick, or Nelson's improving control neutralizes the top game.
- Later rounds: if Nelson survives the early surge, watch how the pace holds as the fight goes long.