← UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07-18
82.9%
Model
87.5%
Market
1.10
Odds
-4.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P91
Striking Initiative
P14
P82
Volume
P50
P56
Striking Efficiency
P35
P21
Range Sniper
P38
P62
Kickboxing
P69
P31
Clinch Striking
P10
P95
Defensive Striking
P26
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P58
Wrestling
P58
P73
Pressure Wrestling
P66
P69
Top Control
P38
P34
Submission
P31
P80
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P59
Grappling Defense
P17
P68
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P16
Power
P20
P55
Finisher
P64
P49
Damage Resistance
P35
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P25
Fast Starter
P61
P85
Pace
P61
P28
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P66
Versatility
P18
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CoriaNicoll
4.69Landed / min3.63
2.40Absorbed / min5.84
45%Accuracy39%
70%Defense50%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.54
Grappling / Wrestling
CoriaNicoll
1.75TD / 151.63
3.49TD att / 1514.14
50%TD accuracy12%
71%TD defense29%
2:55Control / 152:00
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
CoriaNicoll
Head71%|71%
Body13%|16%
Leg16%|13%
Position
CoriaNicoll
Distance82%|94%
Clinch5%|0%
Ground13%|6%
Ranking evolution Coria Nicoll
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Alden Coria
Alden Coria rides a five-fight win streak into this one, 12-3 overall and 2-0 in the UFC. He manages distance well behind a durable chin, and his recent work carries real knockout power. His takedown defense keeps exchanges upright, and when he does hit the mat he gets back to his feet. The longer, taller man here.
Stewart Nicoll
Stewart Nicoll comes in at 8-3 across all organizations but 0-3 in the UFC, dropping each of his last three. His most recent loss came against modest regional opposition. He last fought 3.4 months ago, a reasonably quick turnaround.
Matchup Read
Coria's recent finishing power makes the early rounds his most dangerous window, while the three-round distance lets his stand-up defense and chin pay off if it goes long. With a 5 cm reach edge, he can work from the outside, and his takedown defense plus ability to scramble back up means Nicoll faces trouble keeping this on the mat or away from Coria's hands. Nicoll needs to force phases where Coria is uncomfortable.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Coria lands clean enough with his power to threaten a finish in the opening rounds.
- Grappling: whether Nicoll can secure takedowns and hold position, or Coria stuffs the entries and returns to his feet.
- Late rounds: if it reaches the third, whether Coria's durability keeps him sharp over the distance.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights to go on, Coria's level against this tier of opposition is still lightly tested, which limits how confidently his recent form reads at this stage.